Red Pinstripes: A sweep and a massive series
It's going to be an important weekend at Citizen's Bank Park
Good morning,
Welcome to Red Pinstripes. As of this morning, the Philadelphia Phillies are just a half-game back of the New York Mets for first place in the National League East. And guess who’s coming to Philadelphia for an important three-game series? That’s right, the Mets.
I know I said Monday that I’d focus on the Phillies defense today, but I’ll save that for next week, hopefully when Freddy Galvis returns from IL. Instead, today should be all about what the Phillies just accomplished and what they hope to accomplish this weekend.
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Winning in style
Things were looking a little glum for the Phillies after they only won one game in Pittsburgh last weekend. But there’s nothing better for a scuffling baseball club than sweeping your trade-depleted rivals on the road.
And oh how the Phillies did it. They came back in three of the four games. And the offense is clicking right now. Since J.T. Realmuto and Bryce Harper came to Philadelphia in 2019, we’ve wondered what the offense would look like if those two and Rhys Hoskins were all hitting at the same time. We found out this week. The Phillies scored 7, 9, 5, and 7 runs in this series. Most of the offense was led by that trio.
Are there still things to be concerned about? Of course. Aaron Nola’s not right. Chase Anderson’s spot in the rotation is a total zero. Ranger Suarez needs to be stretched out to handle a starter’s workload. And the bullpen is still shaky.
But ignore those for now. Instead, think about this: the Phillies have won five straight games. They’re score runs. The bullpen didn’t blow any leads. And they could be in first place by the end of the weekend.
Biggest series of the year
I think series cumulatively get bigger every week during the season. The Phillies have already had a couple of big series this year. But none have been bigger than this one against the Mets right now. In some ways, I get 2007 vibes right now. The division deficit isn’t as big as the Phillies faced that year, but the teams are the same. The Mets feel like a team in free fall, with big injuries finally hurting them. The Phillies feel like an ascendant team, playing with confidence and thumping the ball all over the yard.
The Phillies will also have some extra juice in the ballpark this weekend. Friday, the team is honoring the late club president David Montgomery, the rare beloved executive who cared about winning. Jayson Stark wrote an excellent piece about Montgomery for The Athletic when he died in 2019. They republished it this weekend.
Sunday is another big day for a departed Phillies legend. Roy Halladay will have his number retired by the team before Sunday’s game. Appropriately, that game will be started by a Phillie performing in his image, Zack Wheeler.
Probable starters
Friday, 7:05 PM
Marcus Stroman (7-10, 2.80 ERA) at Kyle Gibson (7-3, 2.86 ERA)
Saturday, 4:15 PM
Tylor Megill (1-1, 2.68 ERA) at Ranger Suarez (5-3, 1.04 ERA)
Sunday, 1:05 PM
Taijuan Walker (7-6, 3.86 ERA) at Zack Wheeler (9-6, 2.57 ERA)
Look at those records and those ERAs. This is going to be a terrific weekend of baseball.
NL East standings
Phillies playoff odds
FanGraphs: 37.0% chance to make the playoffs; 35.4% chance to win the division
PECOTA: 33.3% chance to make the playoffs; 32.1% chance to win the division
Baseball-Reference: 40.7% chance to make the playoffs; 39.4% chance to win the division*
*Baseball-Reference gives the Phillies the best chance to win the division, coming in ahead of the Braves and then the Mets.