Good morning,
After spilling a lot of digital ink on every other team in baseball, it’s time to consider what the Phillies should do at the trade deadline this year? Are they buyers? Are they sellers? Could they do both?
Luckily, an offensive explosion in Chicago this week might have helped nudge the Phillies into the buyer category, but what happens after a tough series in Boston this weekend?
On top of all that’s happening with the Phillies this weekend, the MLB draft is also this weekend. I’ll link to some previews below to help you get set for Sunday’s action.
Trader Dave
When Dave Dombrowski took over the Phillies’ front office last year, he came with a reputation as a general manager willing to trade prospects to improve the big league club and win championships. But to push those types of chips into the middle of the table, you have to have a good hand. And whether the Phillies have a good hand has been an open question all season long.
After the excitement of a series-opening sweep of the Atlanta Braves, a lot has happened to reward bad-faith Phillies fans who expect the worst out of this team at every corner. The offense has been worse than expected and limited by injuries to the best players, including Bryce Harper, Jean Segura, and Didi Gregorius. Players like Alec Bohm, Zach Eflin, and Connor Brogdon haven’t developed like the team or the fans expected either. And, despite reinforcements added this offseason, the bullpen has continued to give up leads late in games.
But since Gregorius returned to the team last Friday, this team has felt different. The offense, finally back at full strength, has been clicking. The bullpen blew a lead, but the team still won the game. And they’ve won five of seven, including two of three against a very good Padres team. This week in Chicago, the offense exploded against a suddenly scuffling Cubs team. For the first time this year, it seems like everyone on the offense is hot at the same time. So maybe the Phillies front office should reward them with improvements.
Here’s the standings situation: coming into Friday, the Phillies were 42-43, second place in the NL East, and 4 games behind the first-place Mets. FanGraphs gives the Phillies a 13.9% chance of making the playoffs. PECOTA looks slightly better with a 19.6% chance.
That doesn’t look great, but it’s a chance. That chance mostly runs through winning the division and while the Mets are a good team, they look beatable. They’re injury-prone and a lot of their pitching success has come from players without a long track record.
So where would the Phillies look to improve? I think offensively, they are just about set. The biggest weak spot is third base, but the Phillies aren’t going to sacrifice Alec Bohm’s potential second-half development. Center field is another weak spot, but the Phillies seem happy with Odúbel’s paltry production so far. Even if they looked for an upgrade on the trade market, I think they’d be outbid by other contenders for players like Starling Marte and Joey Gallo.
There is a need on the bench, where the Phillies don’t have a strong right-handed pinch hitter. Luke Williams and Ronald Torreyes are both good, versatile bench players, but their hitting isn’t great. I’d love to see a right-handed Brad Miller or whatever the right-handed version of Matt Stairs is today. I don’t know who that player is. But it’s the type of marginal improvement that won’t cost a lot that could really help the offense.
On the pitching side, the question is whether the Phillies need a starter or relief help more. I lean starter. Part of the reason the bullpen has been such an issue is because the starters haven’t been able to go deep into games, especially whenever Matt Moore, Vince Velasquez, or Chase Anderson ends up starting a game. Unfortunately, most of the potential replacements look like they’re more of the same. The one who isn’t, Max Scherzer, isn’t coming to Philadelphia both because of his cost and because there’s no way he gets traded within the division.
I do like the possibility that the Phillies could trade for the Rangers Kyle Gibson, but once again, he might cost too much. Instead, the Phillies might have to roll the dice that Danny Duffy or Matt Boyd could give them solid innings out of the #4 spot in the rotation.
In the bullpen, the Phillies might once again be hampered by cost. I’d love to see them get Taylor Rogers or Richard Rodríguez, but more serious contenders want those players too. So maybe lower end bullpen guys get brought in, players like Ian Kennedy, Scott Barlow, and Greg Holland. But would any of those pitchers actually be an improvement over Brandon Kintzler? I don’t know.
So it’s kind of an interesting situation. The Phillies don’t really have the trade pieces to get a top target. What’s available isn’t really much of an improvement. They’ll definitely make some moves around the margins to get those fringe starters and bullpen guys, but those are the same moves they’ve made and failed with the last three years. I guess the hope is that Dombrowski is better at these trades than Matt Klentak was.
I felt so optimistic coming into this. But maybe the Phillies hope that internal improvement is the best path to the playoffs. If that looks anything like the beginning of July has looked, I think I’m OK with that.
Conquering the monster
The Phillies hope they can continue their winning ways against the surprising first-place Boston Red Sox this weekend. The Red Sox have scored the second-most runs in the league this year with an offense led by J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers, and Xander Bogaerts. On the pitching side, their bullpen has been very good but the starting pitching has been mediocre.
That includes old friend Nick Pivetta, who has been in the Red Sox rotation all year. Given what I’m sure will be some grass-is-greener wishful thinking by Phillies fans this weekend, here’s a comparison.
Player A: 17 games started, 92.1 IP, 4.09 ERA, 28.0% K%, 10.8% BB%
Player B: 13 games started, 64.2 IP, 4.31 ERA, 23.2% K%, 10.2% BB%
Player A is Pivetta. Player B is Vince Velasquez as a starter. I know a lot of Phillies fans are wondering what the rotation would look like with Pivetta instead of the Velasquez this year, but the answers is probably not that different. The Phillies face Pivetta on Sunday.
Probable starters
Friday, 7:10 PM
Vince Velasquez (3-3, 4.50 ERA) at Garrett Richards (4-5, 4.88 ERA)
Saturday, 4:10 PM
Matt Moore (0-1, 5.60 ERA) at Martin Perez (7-4, 3.89 ERA)
Sunday, 1:10 PM
Aaron Nola (6-5, 4.53 ERA) at Nick Pivetta (7-3, 4.09 ERA)
MLB Draft preview
I don’t know all that much about the players in the MLB draft. I’ve tried to read along, but I’ll pass the reading material your way. You’ll learn a lot more that way.
One thing you should keep in mind: the MLB draft is very different from the NFL and NBA drafts. Teams have drastically different evaluations of players. And a cap on signing bonuses means teams draft more strategically. They might draft a slightly less talented player with their first pick to free up more money so they can draft a first-round talent with their second and third-round picks.
The draft airs 7 p.m. Sunday on ESPN and MLB Network.
2021 Draft Preview (FanGraphs)
Like most drafts, the 2021 draft lacks a truly elite, generational talent at the top, but the tier of talent that fits among the top 100 prospects in baseball has average depth. High school shortstops Jordan Lawlar, Marcelo Mayer, and Khalil Watson, Louisville catcher Henry Davis, Vanderbilt pitchers Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker, and Sam Houston State center fielder Colten Cowser are all 50 FV players. You can see approximately where they’ll rank on the overall pro prospect list once they’re drafted here.
Best fits and biggest needs for all 30 teams (ESPN)
I’ll admit, this is a little confusing for me. In baseball, the best thing to do is just draft the best talent available. There’s no reason to draft for need. That third baseman you didn’t draft because he’d be blocked by an All-Star? You might trade him. Or you might trade the All-Star. Or someone changes positions.
That being said, Kiley McDaniel’s breakdown of where every system stands is worth reading because it’s not position-focused but instead really breaks down the strengths and weaknesses of each system. But remember the caveat: don’t draft for need.
What Goes on in Draft Rooms (FanGraphs)
A worthwhile read from Kevin Goldstein, who was involved in a lot of the Astros’ recent drafts.
Top 50 Draft Prospects (Baseball Prospectus)
The 2021 amateur baseball draft is nigh, and rather than posit who will go where with so much fluidity happening throughout the first round, it felt prudent to provide a big board instead of attempting a mock draft. With the timing of the draft pushed back five weeks, it’s tougher to gauge which teams have focused interest on a player since games for many have ended four to eight weeks ago.
The college class for this year is noticeably down from average, while the prepsters appear to provide the most depth and value in both quality and quantity. I have personally witnessed 30 of the top 50 players below, with accompanying video on our YouTube page, employing feedback from sources within the scouting community to develop the following.
Kiley McDaniel's final 2021 MLB draft rankings - Top 200 prospects (ESPN)
2021 MLB Draft Big Board: Keith Law ranks the Top 100 draft prospects (The Athletic)
SS Marcelo Mayer goes #1 to the Tigers in Law’s latest mock draft. But he cautions that most teams aren’t sure that’s what the Tigers will do.
The draft is about 60 hours away now, so here is my third mock draft, covering the first round (plus one!), what I’m calling my pseudo-final mock because I will update this if and when I hear anything that changes what I’ve written here. There are a lot of rumors now, more than there were even two days ago, but very little certainty — even people with teams drafting in the single digits say they don’t know who’s going ahead of them, all the way up to the first overall pick.
Texas pitcher Ty Madden goes to the Phillies here. (Here’s a good look at why Ty Madden might be underrated.)
Mayer goes #1 to the Tigers here. The Phillies get Mississippi pitcher Gunnar Hoglund at 13.
2021 MLB Mock Draft 3.0 (ESPN)
Kiley McDaniel has Mayer going to the Tigers as well. He has the Phillies taking HS OF Benny Montgomery, who seems to only be linked to the Phillies in a lot of mock drafts because he’s a Pennsylvania native.