Hello!
Welcome to the MLB Wednesday edition of Red Pinstripes. Today is a special edition. I’m going through 29 teams in baseball and telling you whether they should buy, sell, or something in between by this month’s trade deadline.
Apparently, teams have been slow to trade this year because most front offices are focused on this weekend’s draft, which is being held a month later than usual. You can probably expect serious trade rumors to start gaining traction next week.
A word of warning, this post is long. I thought I’d be done by noon today. It’s almost 2 p.m. It’s nearly 6,000 words. So take your time and enjoy it.
And that 30th team? I’ll break down what I think the Phillies should do in this Friday’s newsletter. Hopefully, this Cubs series will provide a lot of the direction the team should take this month.
If you want to get that newsletter as soon as it comes out, the best thing you can do is subscribe to Red Pinstripes. Once the newsletter comes out, you’ll get it in your email.
Buy, Sell, Hold, or something else?
Alright, here we go. If I say something you think is wrong, let me know! Do you think the Orioles should actually be buyers? Tell me! Don’t think the Yankees should target Joey Gallo? Who do you think they go after?
We’ll go division by division, ranked by team record as of Wednesday morning. I’m using FanGraphs' playoff odds for all teams.
National League West
San Francisco Giants (53-32, 82.2% chance to make the playoffs): Chaos
My completely random decision to start with the NL West means we’re starting this trade deadline preview with one of the teams with the trickiest decisions ahead of them this month. The Giants are the oldest team in baseball, getting by with past-their-prime stars like Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, and Evan Longoria. Coming into the season, I thought the Giants would probably be looking to trade pitchers like Kevin Gausman and Johnny Cueto this month to help put the finishing touches on their rebuild.
Unexpectedly, the Giants have the best record in baseball. But buying is hard for them because of their rebuilding/reloading efforts. This team has a lot of players the Giants will have to replace in the future. Selling is also hard because this might be their last chance to win a World Series with this core. If the Giants can trade some lesser prospects for a solid back-end starter and to shore up the bullpen, that’s probably the best way to support the current team without hurting the future.
But there are also some interesting options on the table for the Giants. Posey’s reemergence this season could mean the Giants don’t need the MLB-ready Joey Bart at catcher this year or next year. And they drafted another first-round catcher last year in Patrick Bailey. So, could the Giants trade Bart for a big piece? I think so. Trading Bart for Miami’s Starling Marte could be a bit of an overpay. But including Bart in a package for the Rangers’ Joey Gallo and Kyle Gibson would improve the lineup and the rotation while not seriously hurting the team’s rebuild.
Los Angeles Dodgers (53-33, 99.6%): Buy
It’s easy to suggest the Dodgers should be buyers, especially as they look ready to reclaim the division lead, possibly by the All-Star break. But what do you get for the team that has everything?
The Dodgers have used their deep minor league system to their advantage, plugging in holes created by injuries to Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, and Max Muncy. They also have somehow taken advantage of Albert Pujols, turning the Angels’ castoff into a useful bench piece. The Dodgers probably wouldn’t mind supplementing the bench with a useful utility player, but their real need is in the bullpen where injuries and ineffectiveness could be harmful come playoff time.
And that’s what the Dodgers’ trade deadline strategy is all about. It’s not how do they make the playoffs; that’s virtually assured. Instead, it’s ensuring they have the pieces to win in October. To that end, pursuing Taylor Rogers of the Twins or Richard Rodríguez of the Pirates seems like the obvious route for the Dodgers. The other thing to remember is that Trevor Bauer could miss a significant period of time. Another starter could be on the Dodgers’ shopping list, too.
San Diego Padres (51-37, 94.9%): Buy
The Padres made a lot of big moves in the offseason, especially in the rotation, to put themselves in a competitive position this year. It’s paid off. Even with injuries to the lineup and the rotation, the team has the 4th-best record in the National League and shouldn’t have a problem at least securing a Wild Card spot. The depth the Padres added has helped cover nagging injuries to players like Fernando Tatís Jr. and Trent Grisham. Their bench is deep.
The rotation and bullpen are more questions. Like the Dodgers, the Padres could use more weapons out of the bullpen for the postseason and they could be shopping from the same list. But the Padres have more urgent needs in the rotation where Chris Paddack and Blake Snell have been ineffective, Dinelson Lamet has been hurt and Ryan Weathers is a rookie. Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove need another reliable option. That could be top prospect MacKenzie Gore. Or it could come from outside of the organization.
The best option for the Padres might not be available: the Nationals’ Max Scherzer. It all depends on where the Nats see themselves at the deadline. The Padres have the pieces though to outbid anyone else interested in the 37-year-old ace. Outside of Scherzer, the market goes to the Rangers’ Gibson and a bunch of injured or pricey options like Sonny Gray and Matthew Boyd.
Colorado Rockies (37-49, 0.0%):Sell
The Rockies haven’t been as terrible as I thought they would be this year, but they’ve still been pretty bad. And they have just one mission this month: get the best return possible for star shortstop Trevor Story. Story is a free agent after this year and there’s no reason to think he’d want to sign an extension with the Rockies, especially after seeing former infield mate Nolan Arenado traded after signing a mega-contract.
Story seems unlikely to be traded before the All-Star game in Denver, but next Thursday the bidding war could heat up. With the struggles of Gleyber Torres, the Yankees have an obvious need at shortstop. The Reds have hung in contention and also have an obvious hole at short. The Braves are in a tricky position at three games under .500, but just 5 back of the division-leading Mets. Dansby Swanson has struggled this year and Story would be a big bat to add to that lineup. The Athletics also have a need at shortstop, but buying isn’t always their style. Story could also be a creative solution for teams that need second basemen, like the White Sox.
No matter who wins the sweepstakes, the most important thing for the Rockies is that they trade Story for good value.
Arizona Diamondbacks (24-63, 0.0%) Sell, sell, sell
Wow, the Diamondbacks have been bad this year. I thought they’d at least be feisty, but they’ve been terrible. It looks like they have to sell as much as possible this year to at least kick off a reloading period.
The prize from the Diamondbacks would be 2B/CF Ketel Marte, a switch hitter that teams like the Yankees would love to pry loose from Arizona. But he’s on a team-friendly contract and could be a part of the next winning team in Arizona. It would take a massive offer to get him away from the Diamondbacks. Catcher Carson Kelly isn’t as good and is hurt right now, but is likewise a long-term piece for the club.
The more realistic trade candidates include IF/OF Eduardo Escobar. He’s almost like Marte-lite, a switch hitter who can play multiple positions but is best suited on the corners. Rumors suggest the White Sox are in hot pursuit, but he’s also a fit for any team with a whole at first, second, third, left, or right.
Elsewhere in the lineup, veterans Kole Calhoun and Asdrubal Cabrera would make good additions for any playoff contender. Calhoun could shore up a weak corner outfield and Cabrera can start at second or third, but both would be best suited as bench players. I think Calhoun would give the Yankees a good left-handed outfield bat and Cabrera could help the Dodgers, the White Sox, or the Brewers.
National League Central
Milwaukee Brewers (51-35, 87.9%)Buy
If I had done this preview last week, this division preview would have looked a lot different. But a Brewers hot streak and the Cubs’ 11-game (and counting) losing streak suddenly has the Brewers with a 6.5 game advantage over the second-place Reds.
But the Brewers have an absolutely glaring weakness: their offense. Their 90 wRC+ is 21st in baseball and lower than any contending team outside of Cleveland. The addition of SS Willy Adames has helped but the struggles of Christian Yelich and Keston Hiura have been troubling. A third-baseman or outfielder would really help this team. They’ve been dealing from relief depth to help add Adames and 1B Rowdy Tellez, but that vein seems to be drying up and their minor league system isn’t really anything to write home about. I know they need to buy and Gallo would be a great fit here, I just don’t see the pieces necessary to acquire him. The good news is, they’re basically a lock for the playoffs at this point and good things can happen with their strong starting pitching and bullpen.
Cincinnati Reds (44-41, 16.5%)Buy
There’s been some question as to whether the Reds should buy or sell. I think there’s no question and they need to go all in. They’re a good team in a weak division. If they can beat up on St. Louis, Chicago, and Pittsburgh, they’ll be at least in position for the second wild card.
Luckily, I think there’s one obvious need for the Reds that would catapult them into serious contention: add a shortstop. This team has been getting by on career utility players at short, but even a competent shortstop would improve their chances. I don’t think they’ll go all-in on acquiring a star, like Trevor Story. But a reunion with Freddy Galvis of the Orioles seems like an obvious plus for this team. They also need help in the bullpen, but won’t be shopping at the top of the market. Some low-end prospects for veterans on expiring deals should be expected.
St. Louis Cardinals (43-44, 3.0%)Sell and buy
Give the Cardinals credit for this: they added Arenado in the offseason. But take away all of that credit for not doing more to help their veterans have an actually successful season. Instead, the Cardinals have been hurt by what was obvious in March: their rotation is weak, their bullpen is weak, and the outfielders are unreliable. Tyler O’Neill has been a pleasant surprise, but he’s the only outfielder hitting above average for this team. Dylan Carlson is good but still developing. A soft sell could put the team in a position to win next year.
The Braves and Adam Wainwright could have mutual interest. Andrew Miller might help bring some decent low-end prospects back to the team. The real prize would be Giovanny Gallegos. He’s a high-leverage reliever that teams like the Dodgers and Padres would covet. Maybe the Cardinals could get something good back for him. He also gives them the opportunity to be creative. Maybe the Cardinals aren’t interested in high-talent high-risk prospects, but another team might be. Could a three-team deal to send Gallegos to a contender and get a long-term pitcher from a third team work?
Chicago Cubs (42-44, 5.6%) Buy, put probably sell
The Cubs would have been buyers two weeks ago. In a last chance effort with the core that won the 2016 World Series, a decent pitcher (maybe they shouldn’t have traded Darvish) would have gone a long way. Instead, their losing streak means that pending free agents like Kris Bryant, Javier Báez, and Anthony Rizzo could all be available.
Bryant might be the best combination of player likely to get a big return and player unlikely to sign a long-term deal with the Cubs. His flexibility means he can play third base, first base, and all three outfield positions. That flexibility fits with what the Dodgers and Padres like to do and if he was available, he’d be the perfect fit in their arms race. He might also work with the surprising Giants. The best bet though: if the Cubs trade Bryant he heads to the Mets. He’d help at third for them. Or, if J.D. Davis is playing well, he could spell the struggling Dom Smith in left. He’d be an offensive upgrade in center field. And Michael Conforto hasn’t looked right this year thanks to some injuries, so Bryant can spell Conforto there too.
I think Rizzo is fairly unlikely to be traded. He’s a fan favorite and ownership would still like to sell some tickets to help pay for the big Wrigley overhaul they’ve just finished. Báez is the wild card here. He’d help so many teams. But his value is also hard to gauge with his free-swinging ways. Anywhere you see me say Trevor Story is an option, imagine Báez as an option as well.
Pittsburgh Pirates (32-53, 0.0): Sell
Imagine how good the Pirates would be if they still had all the players they’ve traded away over the years. Oh well. It’s time to trade away more players.
The aforementioned Richard Rodríguez is the relief prize of the year. He can set up for a team with an established closer or take over that role for a team without one. All of the best teams will be in hot pursuit, leaving little room for fringe contenders like the Phillies, Braves, Nationals, Reds, Blue Jays, or Cleveland. Even the Giants will likely be priced out.
Adam Frazier, a left-handed second baseman and outfielder who is a free agent after 2023 could also be on the move. He’s a good contact hitter that would help a lot of teams. He’s already been linked to the White Sox, who are missing the injured Nick Madrigal. Legions of Yankee fans who complaining about a righty-heavy homer-happy lineup would probably love to see Frazier in the Bronx. He’d also help the Mets, fit in with the Dodgers, and improve the Brewers. But he’ll cost a lot and the Pirates could just use this month to gauge his value for next offseason.
CF Bryan Reynolds is even more unlikely to be traded. He’s not a free agent until after the 2026 season. But if the Pirates get blown away by an offer from a team desperate for a centerfielder, he could be on the move too.
National League East
New York Mets (44-37, 80.7) BUY BUY BUY
The Mets have the smallest division lead in baseball and the biggest reason to buy. They already pushed their chips into the middle when they traded for Francisco Lindor. Now they need to solidify their division advantage before teams like the Phillies and Braves can come after them. To be sure, the Mets have been hurt by injuries, but they have real holes that need to be filled.
The shopping list begins with Kris Bryant. I explained in the Cubs section that Bryant can start every day for the Mets while filling in at any number of positions. If Bryant becomes available, the Mets have to make a move.
The Mets could also use a fourth or fifth starter to round out the rotation. Trading for Kyle Gibson or Danny Duffy could go a long way. And like every other contender, adding more arms to the bullpen never hurts.
Philadelphia Phillies (41-42, 13.4%)
Tune in Friday to find out!
Washington Nationals (41-43, 4.7%) Sell
So, I know that the Nationals used a hot June to vault back into contention. And they have studs in Trea Turner and Juan Soto that make them competitive in any season. But I think that the Nationals have a real opportunity right now to ensure that they make the most of Turner and Soto next year. They have to sell.
The Nationals will need a third baseman next year, especially with Carter Kieboom failing to develop. They also need a left fielder and more starting rotation help because Stephen Strasburg might never be a reliable option. The bullpen could also use some more high leverage arms next year. If the Nationals sell right this summer, they’ll be title favorites next year.
Kyle Schwarber was amazing in June, and I know he’s hurt now, but any team looking for left-handed thunder would probably love to have him. He could bring back the type of volatile pitching prospect that turns into a high-velocity reliever.
Starlin Castro and Josh Harrison are both good infielders. They’re fine on this Nats club but as bench veterans, they can make any contender better in the playoffs. They can also bring back some low-end prospect lottery tickets.
The big prize is Max Scherzer, who is a free agent after this season. The Nationals would run a risk here. Trading him means he might realize life is great in other cities. But they might still have the inside track on bringing him back, especially if Scherzer realizes that it helps the team become a contender next year. Every contender would line up for an opportunity to add Scherzer to the rotation. The Yankees, Dodgers, Padres, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, Giants, Astros, and Angels could all use him. That means a bidding war. That means the Nationals could get back a major-league-ready talent. I know this would be a tough trade for the Nats and Nats fans, but it makes too much sense not to happen.
Atlanta Braves (41-44, 11.5%) Buy
The Braves are in fourth place now, but they’ve struggled so much this season that it’s easy to see the team waking up in the second half and charging into the playoffs. After all, this is essentially the same team that was a win away from the World Series last year.
There are simple ways the Braves can improve without spending too much. They can make low-risk deals for veteran relievers and starters that don’t cost a lot but add depth. After all, just improvement from struggling players could be a high-impact acquisition.
But maybe the Braves don’t want to wait for Dansby Swanson to get better or Travis d’Arnaud to return. They could get a catcher or a shortstop or an outfielder or a starter now. Trevor Story would be the headline acquisition. I don’t know if the Braves are willing to trade what it might take to get Story, but if they did, he’d be a great fit in Cobb County. He has to be their top priority.
Things could go the other way for the Braves still. If they have a bad July, could they become sellers? Swanson hasn’t been great, but he could have some value to a contender like the Reds. And Freddie Freeman could be the Braves Scherzer. If they trade him they’re probably still the favorites to re-sign him this year, especially if he knows they traded him to get better. What could Freeman get on the trade market? I doubt we’ll find out (the Braves are much more likely to be contenders than the Nationals), but it’s interesting to think about.
Miami Marlins (37-47, 0.1%)
The Marlins’ hopes of being surprise contenders have almost entirely faded. So they could be sellers this year. This is a team that’s really just a couple of pieces away from being great and building around an excellent rotation and Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Starling Marte is the Marlins’ best trade piece. Personally, I’d love to see the Marlins sign him to an extension, but that doesn’t seem like it’s in the cards. So what if instead, they trade him to the Giants for Joey Bart. Add an Anthony Bass and Jesus Aguilar and maybe you have a deal.
Garret Cooper, Jon Berti, Joe Panik, and Ross Detwiler could all be more targets on the market too.
American League West
Houston Astros (53-33, 97.2%)
How about these Astros. They might be villains, but wrestling doesn’t work if the heel is weak. You need a strong enemy to make rooting for the good guy worthwhile. And, the Astros are still very strong. Yordan Alvarez, when healthy, is one of the best hitters in baseball. Pending free agent Carlos Correa is trying to earn a big contract. Jose Altuve is playing with a chip on his shoulder. Yuli Gurriel is ageless.
The upgrade is in centerfield. Myles Straw is fine, but there are better options available. I doubt the Rangers will trade with their in-state rivals, but the Astros and Marlins have hooked up plenty of times. Starling Marte adds to a deep Astros team and solidifies their status as World Series favorites.
Don’t count out the Astros’ willingness to shake up the pitching staff either. They made the surprise deal for Zack Greinke two years ago. They could look to make similar moves this year for someone like Max Scherzer or Kevin Gausman. I think they’ll also be deep in the mix for the top relievers like Rodríguez and Rogers too.
Oakland Athletics (49-38, 48.1%) Shrug emoji
I have no idea what the A’s will do. They’re a feisty team with some fun players, like Ramon Laureano and Matt Olson. Their pitching staff is also good, but development and injury failures from Jesus Luzardo and AJ Puk are concerning. If the A’s were a normal team, the shopping list would be deep, including a shortstop, a starter, and bullpen improvements.
The A’s could also decide to be sellers. They’ve never shied away from surprising moves and could trade Olson, Mark Canha, Matt Chapman, or Tony Kemp.
The A’s tend to be creative and even though they’re in contention, I fully expect them to do both selling and trading.
Seattle Mariners (45-41, 2.1%) Hold
The Mariners have the longest playoff drought in baseball. They’re 3.5 games out of a playoff spot as of Wednesday morning. They cannot sell. They have the pieces to sell in Kyle Seager and Mitch Haniger, but their fans deserve a fun September.
At the same time, they can’t buy either. There’s no point mortgaging what could be a bright future for an outside shot at the playoffs this year. Trading in the low-end reliever and starter market makes sense. See what it’ll take to get Hansel Robles or Alex Colome. Or, if you’re feeling bold, what does it take to pry away a controllable pitcher like Jose Berrios, who helps the M’s for a couple of seasons.
The highest impact players for the Mariners come from within. A good Logan Gilbert in the rotation. Return to form from Marco Gonzales. Jarred Kelenic returning to the big leagues as a great hitter. The Mariners can get better this season. Don’t give up on them!
Los Angeles Angels (43-42, 16.8%) Buy
The zombie Angels! Everyone counted them out with a horrible April, then the injury to Mike Trout and nagging injuries that Anthony Rendon has dealt with. But here we are, nearing the All-Star break and the Angels are over .500.
The biggest acquisition the Angels can make will happen after the All-Star break, whenever it is this month that Mike Trout returns. He’s the best player in baseball, maybe in the history of the game. He’ll make them better.
But shortstop! Get a shortstop, Angels! Jose Iglesias has a 94 wRC+ this season, 6% below league average. That’s fine considering his stellar defense, but imagine Trevor Story in this lineup. He’d be great for this team.
I understand, on the other hand, that the starting pitching is a greater need for the Angels. They’re shallow now and you can’t be sure, as much as it pains me to say, how long Shohei Ohtani will be healthy. Can you imagine Max Scherzer holding it down for this team as its ace?
Mike Trout has never won a playoff game. He’s barely been in the playoffs. The Angels need to do whatever it takes to get there and win for him. Get Scherzer. Get Story. Make it happen!
Texas Rangers (34-52, 0.0%) Sell
This seems to be the year that Joey Gallo leaves Texas. He has a lot of positional flexibility: he can play first, third, and all three outfield positions. He’s an all or nothing hitter and that might scare a lot of teams, but he’d also be an impact bat for just about anyone. The Yankees, Giants, Mets, and Braves should all check in on him. He’s not a free agent until after next season.
Outside of Gallo, Kyle Gibson is the only other real trade chip for the Rangers. He’s having a good year on the mound and might be the second-best starter available. His market this year could be robust among the teams desperate for rotation help. The Padres, Dodgers, and Angels should all check-in.
American League Central
Chicago White Sox (50-35, 94.1%) Buy
Good thing the rest of this division stinks because the White Sox have been dropping players like flies to injury. Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Nick Madrigal, and just this week, Yasmani Grandal have all gone down for significant periods of time. The best thing the White Sox could acquire is good health. They should get Jimenez, Robert, and Grandal back by the playoffs, which they’ll almost certainly make. What the White Sox need is a second baseman, and they’ve been busy trying to find one. I wouldn’t be surprised if Eduardo Escobar (at third with Yoan Moncada at second) or Adam Frazier is on the south side by the time the All-Star break is over.
(Can you tell I’m running out of steam. These team capsules are getting smaller and smaller, but I think the NL West was the most interesting division too. The rest of these are ‘get this’ and ‘sell that.’ Pretty basic.)
Cleveland Baseball Team (42-40, 8.8%) Hold
If I thought this team ownership was any good, I’d encourage them to try to catch the hobbled White Sox and buy what they can. But then again, they sold most of the players that probably would have helped them anyway, like Francisco Lindor. To be fair, the team is playing well with basically the entire rotation hurt along with a lot of the lineup regulars. Health, like with the White Sox, could be their biggest acquisition.
On the other hand, if you’re going to be cheap cowards, why not sell what you’ve got. Jose Ramirez would get you a haul if you traded him, so maybe Cleveland should consider that. He’s a switch hitter and can play a couple of positions. Why not throw out all the good pieces and have a completely new team for your rebrand in a couple of years?
Detroit Tigers (36-47, 0.1%) Hold
Matt Boyd could be a valuable target on the trade market if he gets healthy, so the Tigers should trade him if they can. Jonathan Schoop could also be valued by some contenders, but I don’t think he gets a lot in return. But the Tigers, more than anything else, need to give their young players playing time and that’s what they’re doing.
Kansas City Royals (36-49, 0.2%) Sell
The Royals have been a fun team, but they also have some pieces to sell that could bring back some good players for their rebuild, which is nearing its end. Carlos Santana is the best piece available. He’s limited to first and DH, but he is such a good hitter that any team with a need for a bat should want him in their lineup. He’d really help the Red Sox, I think, and he’ll return just some lottery tickets for the Royals, who could use those types of pitchers that might be nothing or might develop into a backend starter or a middle reliever. Danny Duffy could bring back the same type of return.
The real question is whether the Royals should trade Whit Merrifield. He’s been a great hitter who can play any position. But does he have a place on the next good Royals team? I think he does and I would advocate keeping him. I think that’s what the Royals will do, too. But if someone makes them a huge offer, they have to at least listen.
Minnesota Twins (35-49, 1.1%) Sell
What a disappointment. They should have been this division’s winners, but have been really bad this year. The question though is what do they do? Is this who they’ll be and it’s time to tear the whole thing down? Or do they just sell around the edges and see if they can get back to contention next year?
Here’s who they sell: Taylor Rogers could be the top reliever on the market. If he gets you anything approaching a major league caliber prospect in return, the Twins should take it. Josh Donaldson is also someone who should be sent out. If the Mets can’t pry Bryant loose from the Cubs, why not go after Donaldson? Nelson Cruz’s market is diminished because he’s only a DH and can’t play in the NL. But he could really make the White Sox or the Rays lineups a lot better and probably wouldn’t cost too much.
American League East
Boston Red Sox (54-33, 91.5%) Buy
It’s amazing that the Red Sox are in contention. They shouldn’t be. They should be cursed for another 100 years because they traded away Mookie Betts for “financial flexibility.” But here they are. Because they weren’t especially built to be contenders, their list of needs is fairly long. They could use a second baseman and a centerfielder. They’re also short an ace and some high-leverage relievers.
Luckily, some of that could be gained just from within. Top prospect Jarren Duran might be the team’s centerfielder by the end of the year. Chris Sale is on the verge of making rehab starts. He’d be a better starting pitcher acquisition than anyone available except Scherzer, and Sale costs nothing.
A backend starter like Danny Duffy is still a viable target for the Red Sox. He shores up some innings and provides valuable experience while improving the starts they get from Nick Pivetta and Garret Richards. I doubt they make a big move to improve at second, but imagine adding Trevor Story? More likely, I think maybe Dansby Swanson or, should the Phillies fall off, Jean Segura would be good additions here too.
Tampa Bay Rays (49-36, 57.5%)Hold
The Rays aren’t really buyers. I find their competitive model to be fairly despicable. Stu Sternberg lines his pockets off of revenue-sharing money from other clubs while fielding the cheapest team possible. Even as contenders, they’re more likely to sell a player than buy one. They already traded away Willy Adames, although that did clear the decks for top prospect Wander Franco.
This team does have needs. I think their rotation could really use an ace, especially after losing Tyler Glasnow to injury. Max Scherzer would be perfect here. But is adding a player of his contract really the Rays style? It makes sense if the Nats ate some cash and got a great return. But would Scherzer, a leader in the players union, be willing to waive his 10/5 rights to accept a trade to this shop?
Outside of that, expect the Rays to make some fringey moves. They’ll pick up a reliever or two. Maybe they get that backend starter. But their farm system is so deep and talented, they can improve just by promoting prospects, as they’ve already done with Franco and now Vidal Brujan.
Toronto Blue Jays (43-40, 38.4%) Buy
The mission for the Blue Jays, who have a fantastic lineup, is to find more pitching. They need an ace, but I don’t think they can get one. Instead, just adding more depth in the rotation and bullpen is important. They should be in the mix for every high-leverage reliever, including Richard Rodríguez and Taylor Rogers. They should also try to get creative, looking to see if there’s a contender willing to swap a top reliever for a Blue Jays hitter.
New York Yankees (43-41, 43.9%) Buy, but also hold
I know that it’s been a tough year for the Yankees. No one would have expected them to be in this position, fourth place and barely over .500. But they’re still a good team and the playoffs are still in sight. Just winning a wild card slot would give them a chance to wreak havoc in the playoffs.
So what will it take to get there? Regression to the mean would help. D.J. Lemehieu has not been as good as he has been the last couple of years. If he returns to form, that’s a massive improvement for the Yankees. Likewise from Gleyber Torres, who should have been the bright young star of the Yankees but just hasn’t developed.
The Yankees will also benefit from health. They’ve missed Luke Voit’s bat and Giancarlo Stanton, when healthy, is a great hitter. I know that Yankee fans have concerns about the health of Judge and Stanton, as they should, but when healthy there might not be a more powerful duo in baseball.
Outside of health and improvement from players who should be playing better, the Yankees really need a center fielder. Brett Gardner is not a starter anymore. Preferably a lefty to help balance the lineup. I think the obvious buy is Joey Gallo, whose lefty thunder would play well in the Bronx and can play a good center field. He’d get a hero’s welcome, at first, in New York, but I also think fans would quickly realize they added another high-strikeout homer-happy outfielder. (I like the strategy, but it’s worn thin with some of the Yankee faithful.)
Starling Marte would also help, but he’s right-handed, as are other center field options like Mark Canha and Mitch Haniger. The real prize would be Ketel Marte. But as I said in the Diamondbacks’ capsule, it will probably take a massive overpay to get Marte. Is that worth it? It might be for the Yankees, who need a player of his caliber and wouldn’t mind having him moving forward for a couple of seasons either.
Pitching should also be a target for the Yankees. I think one more back-end starter would help eat some innings, at least until Corey Kluber and Luis Severino get healthy and Gerrit Cole returns to form. Improvement could also come from within if Deivi García can pitch well in the majors.
The bullpen has been a strength, but it will need Aroldis Chapman’s sudden decline to reverse itself if the Yankees want the ‘pen to be the weapon it has been in recent years.
Finally, while Torres has been mediocre, I don’t think now is the time for a panic trade. Mostly it comes down to opportunity cost. There’s a big free-agent shortstop class next year. Why overpay in prospects for Trevor Story now, when you might be able to sign Corey Seager next year. Imagine that lefty swing in Yankee Stadium.
Baltimore Orioles (28-57, 0.0%)
Cedric Mullins has been a revelation this year and, despite the dreams of some Yankee fans, he’s not going anywhere. Likewise, I think the Orioles see Trey Mancini and John Means as part of their next good team. So who’s available from this last-place club?
Freddy Galvis could be a shortstop/second base option for any contender that doesn’t want to play in the superstar market. He’s not a great hitter but does play fun defense. Maikel Franco might be a similar option for teams that lose out on Kris Bryant or Josh Donaldson.
Otherwise, the Orioles’ rebuild has left the cupboard fairly spare. The most important thing about this trading deadline is opening up opportunities for younger players.