Red Pinstripes: CHARGE!
A preview of the playoff races with just about 15 games left in the season
Hi,
Welcome back to Red Pinstripes. It’s been a while but for the Phillies, everything feels the same. They lose to teams they should beat. They crush the Nationals. And somehow, because everyone else stinks, the Phillies haven’t been knocked out of the playoff race just yet.
But I’m not here to talk about the Phillies today. With just a little over two weeks remaining on the season, let’s look at where all the playoff races stand. We have a tight division race in the NL West and wild cards up for grabs in the American League and the National League.
The eliminated and the getting there
Here are the teams that have already been eliminated from the playoffs or will get there pretty soon:
Baltimore Orioles
Texas Rangers
Minnesota Twins
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers
Los Angeles Angels
Cleveland (Guardians)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Pittsburgh Pirates
Washington Nationals
Miami Marlins
Chicago Cubs
Colorado Rockies
The clinched
Here’s who is definitely going to the playoffs, whether they’ve already clinched it or will soon:
Tampa Bay Rays
Chicago White Sox
Houston Astros
Milwaukee Brewers
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers
Almost all of those teams will win their divisions. The Giants and the Dodgers are the only teams in baseball that have actually clinched playoff berths, but they’re also battling in a tight race for the NL West.
Here’s what’s up for grabs then: the NL West, the NL East, and both wild cards.
The NL West
As of Thursday morning, the Giants were just 1.5 games up on the Dodgers. These teams won’t play each other again this year, so they’re going to have to win the division by beating the teams on their schedule. These are the two best teams in the National League, and maybe all of baseball. But whoever doesn’t win the division has to play in the Wild Card game. Here’s who’s left on the schedule:
Dodgers:
At Reds (3)
At Rockies (3)
At Diamondbacks (3)
Vs Padres (3)
Vs Brewers (3)
Giants:
Vs. Braves (3)
At Padres (3)
At Rockies (3)
Vs Diamondbacks (3)
Vs Padres
A glance at the schedule gives the Dodgers a slight edge. The schedules are pretty similar except, but the final series for each could seal the deal. The Padres will be fighting for survival while the Brewers might be resting up for the playoffs.
NL East
It looks like the Braves will probably win this thing. “Win” might not be the right word though, because the only reason this isn’t closer is that the Phillies and the Mets have refused to take it. Both teams have fumbled away multiple opportunities, leaving the Braves with an easy playoff spot, as long as they don’t blow it themselves. They’re up 3.5 games over the Phillies and 5.5 over the Mets.
Remaining schedule:
Vs. Rockies (1)
At Giants (3)
At Diamondbacks (4)
At Padres (3.5)
Vs. Phillies (3)
Vs. Mets (3)
Somehow, those final six games could be meaningful. The Braves schedule is very tough, with four of their five series remaining against playoff contenders. So winning the division isn’t a given, but because of the way the Phillies and Mets have played, I wouldn’t bet against these Braves.
NL Wild Card
The NL Wild Card is a race to the bottom. The Padres, Reds, Phillies, and Mets have all done their best to miss the playoffs. Only the Cardinals have taken advantage, coming back from an 8.5 game deficit last month and now they’re in the wild card position. One of these teams, separated by five games, will win a playoff spot: the Cardinals, the Padres (1 GB), the Reds (1.5 GB), the Phillies (3 GB), or the Mets (5 GB). Here’s who they play the rest of the way:
Cardinals:
Vs. Padres (3)
At Brewers (4)
At Cubs (4)
Vs. Brewers (3)
Vs. Cubs (3)
Padres:
At Giants (1)
At Cardinals (3)
Vs. Giants (3)
Vs. Braves (3.5)
At Dodgers (3)
At Giants (3)
Reds:
At Pirates (1)
Vs. Dodgers (3)
Vs. Pirates (3)
Vs. Nationals (4)
At White Sox (2)
At Pirates (3)
Phillies:
Vs Cubs (1)
At Mets (3)
Vs. Orioles (3)
Vs. Pirates (4)
At Braves (3)
At Marlins (3)
Mets:
Vs. Phillies (3)
At Red Sox (2)
At Brewers (3)
Vs. Marlins (4)
At Braves (3)
I’d throw out the strength of schedule. If these teams have proven anything over the last month, it’s that they’ll lose to the teams they should beat. The only team beating teams right now is the Cardinals and they’re my favorite to win the Wild Card. They’re the only team you can trust to win a game right now.
The Phillies and Mets have too many teams to jump over. Their best bet will be the longshot NL East title. The Reds have been too bad over the last couple of weeks to believe they can beat even their meager schedule. And the Padres depth has completely collapsed with a bunch of really unfortunate injuries.
AL Wild Card
Let’s finish up with the best race remaining in baseball. Five teams are fighting for two wild card spots, and the AL East wants to win both of them. If the season ended Thursday morning, The Yankees and Blue Jays would be the two wild card teams. The Red Sox have the same winning percentage but are a game behind their two rivals in the loss column. Then you have the Oakland Athletics (3.5 GB) and the Seattle Mariners (4 GB).
Yankees:
At Orioles (1)
Vs. Cleveland (3)
Vs. Texas (3)
At Boston (3)
At Toronto (3)
Vs. Tampa Bay (3)
Blue Jays:
Vs. Twins (3)
At Rays (3)
At Twins (4)
Vs. Yankees (3)
Vs. Orioles (3)
Red Sox:
Vs. Orioles (3)
Vs. Mets (2)
Vs. Yankees (3)
At Orioles (3)
At Nationals (3)
Athletics:
At Royals (1)
At Angels (3)
Vs. Mariners (4)
Vs. Astros (3)
At Mariners (3)
At Astros (3)
Mariners:
At Royals (3)
At Athletics (4)
At Angels (3)
Vs. Athletics (3)
Vs. Angels (3)
Let’s start with who I’m eliminating: The Athletics and the Mariners. Could one of these teams get hot and end up in the playoffs? Yes. It wouldn’t surprise me. But with just two weeks remaining, it’s really hard for these teams to jump over multiple teams to make the playoffs. And that’s what the Mariners and A’s would have to do.
Then we have the AL East teams. The Blue Jays have the best combo of playing well and easy schedule. So I think they might be a lock to make the playoffs. Then it’s the Yankees and the Red Sox. And that’s anyone’s guess. Both teams have been inconsistent. Both have soft schedules.
Here’s the dream scenario: the Yankees and the Red Sox tie and have a one-game playoff just to win the second wild card. That would be a lot of fun.
Actually, these final two and a half weeks should be a lot of fun. If you love baseball, it’s a great time of year leading into an even better time of year. Enjoy watching!