Red Pinstripes: Dodgers-Giants should be great
NLDS previews and the case for the 1-game Wild Card game
Today, the playoffs get into full swing. So let’s make sure we have an NLDS preview, including what I think might be one of the best divisional series we’ve ever had.
Before we get to those previews, I want to talk a little about 1-game Wild Cards and why I think they’re great for baseball.
Next week, the newsletter will also start looking at what the Phillies have to do this offseason to improve.
First though, marvel in the glory of playoff Randy Arozarena.
Win your division
Right up until Chris Taylors sailed over the left-center wall in Dodger Stadium Wednesday night, there was a realistic chance that the 106-win Dodgers might be one-and-done in the playoffs. It kickstarted a lot of talk about these Wild Card games and whether there should be different seeding, more games in a Wild Card series, or even expansion.
But I love that the Dodgers had to play this game. The baseball season is 6 months long. It has 162 games. So I think you have to win your division. That’s where the focus is. Some years, you’re the White Sox or the Brewers and you get the benefit of being a good team in a terrible division. Some years, you’re the Braves and you sneak out a division win when everyone is below par. And some years, you’re the Dodgers and the Giants and you have to scratch and claw for every win to make sure your season doesn’t come down to one Wild Card game where anything can happen.
That’s great. It’s great drama for us fans. It’s a great incentive for teams to be the best they can be all year long. And it’s an incentive for those second Wild Card teams to fight for a playoff spot because you never know what’s going to happen once you’re in that game.
There’s a lot of talk about playoff expansion in baseball. More teams and more games is what the bean counters in the league office want. But I love the playoffs the way they are now (with one change that I’ll get to in a minute). It’s fun.
NLDS previews
Dodgers (4) vs. Giants (1)
All season long, the Giants were just one step ahead of the Dodgers. They raced out to a quick lead. At the trade deadline, the Dodgers got Max Scherzer and Trea Turner. They won a bunch of games down the stretch. But every time they won a series 2-1, the Giants won a series 2-1. If they won a series 3-1, the Giants swept a series 4-0. And in the end, the Giants were one game better, both overall and in their season series against the Dodgers. That one game means the Giants get the home field advantage. It means the Giants didn’t have to burn their best starter and their best relievers in a Wild Card game.
I think this series has a chance to be special. It’s the first time these two storied rivals have ever met in the playoffs. It’s kind of amazing it’s taken so long, but when you think about it, it’s also kind of amazing the Yankees and Red Sox have met in the postseason so many times given how relatively new this Wild Card playoff format is.
I also think this series is an excuse to make the one change to baseball’s playoffs that I think should happen: the division series need to be 7-game series, not 5-game series. Too often we get these great divisional matchups and I think fans are robbed by playing fewer games. It’s kind of a no-brainer to expand these rounds. TV networks and the league would make more money. And the fans would get more drama.
Probable starters
Game 1
Friday, 9:37 PM, TBS
Walker Buehler at Logan Webb
Game 2
Saturday, 9:07 PM, TBS
Julio Urias at Kevin Gausman
Game 3
Monday, 9:37 PM, TBS
If you’ve been watching baseball this year, you know the story. These have been baseball’s two best teams all year. The Dodgers are the big payroll behemoth who started with stars like Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, and Will Smith and added Max Scherzer and Trea Turner at the trade deadline.
The Giants are the surprise team built around role players and aging stars like Buster Posey, Evan Longoria, Brandon Belt, Lamont Wade, Mike Yasztremski, Alex Dickerson, and Wilmer Flores. They led the league in home runs hit and were one of the best in the league at not giving up home runs.
I think the key to this series comes down to the Dodgers’ health and how well they overcome the loss of Max Muncy and Clayton Kershaw. The big problem is Muncy and who replaces his production in the middle of their lineup. Cody Bellinger has been awful this year, but he was the man in the middle of all the action Wednesday night. If he can suddenly return to form, that could be the big difference in this series.
I really don’t want to pick this series: Giants in 5
Braves (3) vs. Brewers (2)
Unfortunately for the Braves, I think this series ends up being a washout. The Brewers might be the quietest great team we’ve had in baseball in a while. That’s because they didn’t truly become great until the middle of the year and they easily beat a bad division.
We knew all year the Brewers pitching staff was great. Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Freddy Peralta are all top pitchers in this league. But the Brewers’ offense struggled for large portions of this season. That hasn’t been the case down the stretch, though. With castoffs from other organizations like Willy Adames and Rowdy Tellez and the growth of young third baseman Luis Urias, this is suddenly a good offense. It’s still not great, but they’re good enough to win these playoff games.
The Braves are in the postseason because the rest of the NL East stunk and the Braves got lucky with some trade deadline acquisitions. They had to rebuild their outfield on the fly in July after Marcell Ozuna went out for the year for being a terrible human being and Ronald Acuna Jr. tore his knee. The Braves added Joc Pederson, Eddie Rosario, Adam Duvall, and Jorge Soler to the outfield mix and they’ve all been great. That wasn’t guaranteed to be the case. Soler and Rosario were having horrible years. But those four turned their seasons around and it turned the Braves season around in return.
Probable starters
Game 1
Friday, 4:37 PM, TBS
Charlie Morton at Corbin Burnes
Game 2
Saturday, 5:07 PM, TBS
Max Fried at Brandon Woodruff
Game 3
Monday, 1:07 PM, TBS
Here are a couple of more things to look at in this series. On the Braves’ side, their pitching staff is pretty good. It’s not Brewers level, but Fried and Morton have been great in September. And their infield, offensively, is truly tremendous. Freddie Freeman, Alex Riley, Ozzie Albies, and Dansby Swanson can win games by themselves. With the rebuilt outfield, this is a good offensive team. The bullpen, however, is bad. It’s an NL East bullpen and if you’ve followed any of the teams in the division, you know what that means.
I touched on a lot about the Brewers, but I didn’t get into their other great strength: the bullpen. Josh Hader might be the best reliever in baseball. Brad Boxberger has had a great bounce-back year. The Brewers just know how to get the most out of pitchers. But they don’t have Devin Williams, who broke his hand punching a wall last week. Not great, Bob. He’ll be sorely missed if the Brewers need more length out of their relievers this month.
Pick: Brewers in 4