Red Pinstripes: First place! First place! First place!
The Phillies swept the Mets and face the juggernaut Dodgers
What a weekend for the Philadelphia Phillies. When it comes to regular season baseball, I’m not sure you’re going to find a weekend that combines nostalgia and hope quite the way this weekend turned out in Philadelphia. These Phillies channeled the success of their predecessors all weekend and now find themselves in the driver’s seat in the NL East.
And what do the Phillies get for their success? The Dodgers are coming to town for a three-game series. Unlike previous series against good teams where the Phillies were just looking to get something going, now they have some juice.
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Past, present, future?
It was alumni weekend in Philadelphia and the ballpark and the broadcast were filled with Phillies legends of the past. Fittingly, the weekend’s series felt like a trip through the team’s most recent success years.
Coming into Friday, 2007 and 2008 were on a lot of fans’ minds. Those were the seasons that the Phillies overcame the Mets to win the division down the stretch. And that’s what the Phillies had the opportunity to do Friday. After falling four games behind the Mets at the end of July, the Phillies entered Friday’s game just a half-game behind the Mets. Friday’s game was the latest in the season the two teams had met with first place on the line since 2008.
Saturday’s game was a reminder of the sense of community the Phillies franchise builds around its legends. First, the Phillies inducted Manny Trillo into the team’s wall of fame. Then the franchise welcomed a rotating selection of past stars to the broadcast booth. They reminisced about successes past and noted the growing buzz around the stadium, a buzz that hasn’t been felt in Citizens Bank Park since 2011. The Phillies are in a playoff race.
Finally, Sunday’s game was the capstone. Pregame, Roy Halladay’s number was retired, complete with Carlos “Chooch” Ruiz helping to unveil the 34 statue in the third-base plaza. And then, in front of the largest crowd most of these Phillies have played in front of, Zack Wheeler pitched like Halladay. He threw a complete-game two-hitter, dominating Mets hitters from start to finish.
The team felt all of this too. It was clear that they were enjoying the atmosphere. And Wheeler took on the personal responsibility of carrying Halladay’s legacy.
The Phillies finished the weekend two games ahead of the Braves for first place in the NL East. The Mets are in third, two-and-a-half games back. Zack Wheeler is finally getting the Cy Young talk he’s deserved all season. And Bryce Harper, who despite hearing “overrated chants” has been underrated all year, is starting to get MVP consideration. Right now, baseball is clicking in Philadelphia.
And that brings up questions about the future. Can this team sustain its success? Can they make the playoffs for the first time since 2011? I think the answer is yes. Spring training was a hopeful time for Phillies fans. We saw the potential of this team, especially when the offense is clicking on all cylinders.
Now, we’re finally seeing that potential come to fruition during a regular season. The offense, led by Harper, Rhys Hoskin, J.T. Realmuto, and Jean Segura, is clicking right now. It’s an exciting, fun offense to watch. Since the All-Star break, this team is seventh in MLB in home runs. They’re striking out at the third-lowest rate in the league and they’re walking at the highest rate.
The rotation looks like it’s going to do enough. Wheeler is the ace. Aaron Nola needs to find his consistency, but the track record is there. Despite what anyone might think about what the Phillies had to trade to get him, Kyle Gibson is a really solid number three starter who has pitched well since coming to the Phillies. If the Phillies can get Ranger Suarez stretched out while maintaining his stuff and command and get Zach Eflin back healthy, at the very least they have a staff that is going to keep the Phillies in games.
The bullpen is also starting to come around. I have my doubts about Ian Kennedy as a closer, but he’s been successful in that role for a couple of seasons now. Archie Bradley has been fantastic since the calendar turned to July. And Hector Neris has returned to form. Neris is a special case. I think he completely loses his command for a month every season, but then he gets it back. He has it back now and is the Phillies’ best reliever again.
The bullpen needs a little more length. There are too many long relievers in there and not enough dependable arms. Sam Coonrod, Connor Brogdon, and Bailey Falter will all return to the pen soon, hopefully. And Seranthony Dominguez is rehabbing from his Tommy John surgery. If he can come back — even as a capable middle reliever — in September, that would be a massive addition for this bullpen.
The most glaring weakness right for the Phillies is the defense, especially on the left side of the infield. Alec Bohm is a willing defender. He tries hard and it looks like he works hard. I just think he’s too big to play third base. His actions aren’t smooth. There are a lot of people who think that his speed and arm will make him a good left fielder, and I’d love to see that experiment in the future.
Didi Gregorius has also been a weak defender this year. He’s fallen off significantly from his performance last year and his struggles this year come as he struggles with pseudogout in his left arm.
To help fill these weaknesses, the Phillies traded for Freddy Galvis and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him starting at third base or shortstop when Gibson is on the mound. Freddy and Ronald Torreyes will also get a lot of work as defensive replacements. That’s the solution to this weakness right now. It’s not the right time to overhaul the infield, so we’ll see how well the late-inning replacement route goes.
Let’s not let the defense bring the end of this section down. The Phillies are rolling. They’re in first place. And the city of Philadelphia looks like it is ready to erupt in support of this team if they can keep it going. It finally looks like this team knows how to win.
A big test for the first-place club
Congratulations Phillies, you’re in first place! Now you get to face the Dodgers, including a matchup with a pitcher that has dominated you over the past couple of years, Max Scherzer.
Honestly, this is the best time to face the Dodgers. The Phillies are hot. They’ve vanquished their divisional foe. Now is the time to prove you belong among the best of the National League.
It’s going to be a little lucky, too. The Phillies miss the heart of the Dodgers rotation. Instead of Walker Buehler, they’ll see David Price and Julio Urias. It’s an opportunity this week and one I expect the Phillies to take advantage of.
Probable starters
Tuesday, 7:05 PM
Max Scherzer (9-4, 2.75 ERA) at Aaron Nola (7-6, 4.49 ERA)
Wednesday, 7:05 PM
David Price (4-1, 3.53 ERA) at Kyle Gibson (8-3, 2.79 ERA)
Thursday, 1:05 PM
TBD (likely Julio Urias) at TBD (likely Ranger Suarez)
NL East standings
Phillies playoff odds
FanGraphs: 56.8% chance to make the playoffs, 55.8% chance to win the division
Baseball-Reference: 60.1% chance to make the playoffs