Good morning,
The Phillies continue to lose games they should win with a combination of bullpen breakdowns and defensive miscues. Tonight, they get to see if they can turn it all around against the Marlins. More on both situations below.
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Giving the games away
The Philadelphia Phillies won two of four from the first-place New York Mets over the weekend. The Philadelphia Phillies should have won all four games against the first-place New York Mets over the weekend.
Both statements are true. Both statements can have positive connotations. But the second statement really points to the big problem for the Phillies right now: they’re giving away winnable games.
Continuing what is now a seasons-long trend, the Phillies blew games against the Mets and that Nationals last week, mostly through the fault of their bullpen and their defense. These are not new issues for the Phillies. They’ve been around for a while now.
After Héctor Neris blew another save Wednesday, manager Joe Girardi said he would look for different options to close games. Friday’s doubleheader against the Mets gave both José Alvarado and Archie Bradley chances to earn saves. They each blew it. Luckily, Neris was able to nail down a save in the second game that Bradley blew, but then Neris lost a lead of his own Saturday (with some help from the defense).
It’s not like the Phillies didn’t make moves last offseason to fix the bullpen. But Alvarado, for all of his ability to dominate, is also highly combustible. Bradley was brought in to be a more reliable relief option, but he’s been injured and surprisingly unreliable this year with diminished fastball velocity.
Both were good additions to the ‘pen. But they also shouldn’t have been the only moves. Last year’s bullpen was a gaping hole in the wall, but instead of replacing the drywall, the Phillies wallpapered over the problem. It looked for a little bit, but that hole has started to open up again.
The defensive issues are also known, but maybe it’s a little more forgivable that the problems weren’t fixed. Rhys Hoskins is a below-average defender at first and Alec Bohm is a below-average defender at third. In an ideal world, the Phillies have the designated hitter and Bohm improves the defense at first while Hoskins serves as the designated hitter. The Phillies chose this year to wait out the season with a subpar defense knowing that the DH is probably an option next year. And they kind of had to. Hoskins has been one of the team’s most important hitters and Bohm, despite his struggles, is the team’s most talented home-grown hitter in a decade. Unfortunately, the inability to improve on the corners has come back to haunt the team this year.
It’s these diagnosable problems that make the Phillies so frustrating this year. The bullpen, the defense, the starting rotation past the top three -- ask any Phillies fan and they’ll tell you these are problems. Ask the front office, ask the field staff, ask the players; they’ll all tell you the same thing, too.
The frustration comes from the lack of fixes. It comes from a lack of urgency to fix some of the issues by the front office. It also comes from knowing that maybe it’s just not possible to fix some of these issues this year.
The frustration also comes from knowing that this is a losing team despite some really good players. The Mets proved this weekend that they are a beatable team. They’re not a juggernaut and neither is any other team in the NL East. A winning season and a playoff season could be within the Phillies’ grasp for the first time in ten years, but the team keeps handing wins to the other team.
I don’t know what the fixes are right now. Certainly, the Phillies can’t fix the defensive situation without making an inconsistent offense worse. And better teams will probably make better offers for the better relievers on the trade market. I guess right now, I’m crossing my fingers and hoping luck starts going the Phillies’ way.
Pain in a microcosm
If you happened to miss the weekend series against the Mets, don’t worry, the Phillies gave you a recap during Monday’s makeup game against the Reds. Spencer Howard and Bailey Falter pitched well enough for the Phillies to win, with Falter holding a 4-2 lead with one out in the seventh. Then he gave up a weak base hit and Joe Girardi decided it was time to bring Neftali Feliz -- who hadn’t pitched in the major leagues in 4 years -- into a high-leverage situation.
The Phillies lost 12-4.
Gone fishing
The Phillies face a familiar stumbling block this weekend when the Marlins come to Philadelphia for a three-game set. The Marlins have won just 4 of their last 10. Normally, you’d hope the Phillies could use a scuffling team to turn around their own bad run. But the Marlins often represent the dashing of hope for the Phillies, beating them and killing fans’ spirits at every opportunity. This also represents the Phillies’ only opportunity to face a losing team before the All-Star break. They have the Padres, the Cubs, and the Red Sox lined up after the Marlins. Let’s have fun?
In good news, Jean Segura is expected to return to the lineup Tuesday and Didi Gregorius has been playing again in Lehigh Valley and could make his own return soon.
Probable starters
Tuesday, 7:05 PM
Trevor Rogers at Vince Velasquez
Wednesday, 7:05 PM
TBD at Aaron Nola
Thursday, 6:05 PM
Pablo López at Zach Eflin
NL East standings
Phillies playoff odds
PECOTA: 83.5-78.5 projected record. 23.5% chance to make the playoffs, 15.6 % chance to win the division.
FanGraphs: 79.3-82.7 projected record. 6.9% chance to make the playoffs, 5.5% chance to win the division.