Red Pinstripes: Opening Day is here!
Baseball is back. Previewing the Phillies-Braves, lots of MLB news, COVID good and bad
Happy Opening Day,
Welcome to the first Red Pinstripes of the new season. I have my thoughts on Opening Day and what this season means below. There’s also a quick preview of the Phillies-Braves season, some news about the Phillies and from around the league.
The time for too many words is over. Baseball is back and I could not be happier. I’ll be live tweeting today’s baseball games over at the Red Pinstripes Twitter account, so give that a follow.
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Good vibes on Opening Day for baseball and the Phillies
At some point Thursday, and probably multiple times throughout this weekend, I’m sure MLB Network will air a video essay, narrated by Tom Verducci, waxing poetic about fresh grass clippings, the crack of the bat, the roar of the crowd, hope springs eternal, and so on. How am I sure they’ll do this? Because they’ve done this every year for what seems like the 13 years MLB Network has been around.
And normally, I roll my eyes whenever this montage starts. Sure, I like all of those things. But I like actually talking about the fun players and teams more than I like listening to someone try to be baseball Robert Frost.
This year feels different though. Opening Day feels like it means more. Just talking about the teams in a fun way, rather than the way everything was couched with foreboding last August, feels fresh and exciting. And things like having a crowd this season are also genuinely exciting. We didn’t get that last year.
Maybe I’m also more likely to tolerate this kind of baseball demagoguery this year because the vibes around Phillies fandom this year are actually good. The team cut off any path to criticism by checking off every goal on its offseason checklist. They #signedJT, brought back Didi, shored up the bullpen and added depth all over the roster. And this all happened after they brought an adult in to run the front office.
A national underestimation of the Phillies’ chances also has weirdly buoyed Phillies fans. It’s like we know a secret the experts don’t. Which is fair! Only fans of a team really pay any attention to the bullpen and the back-end of the rotation.
I think this odd sense of contentment also comes from fairly low expectations. We all want the Phillies to win the division. But after a decade of futility, just having a winning record would satisfy a lot of fans right now. They’re in a really strong division, so there’s an understanding that they could have a good season and still miss the playoffs.
Projections seem to agree. For an article, Baseball Prospectus simulated the season 100,000 times. Any time you simulate a season 100,000 times, you’ll get some weird results like the Orioles winning their division once or the Dodgers losing 67 games once. But the Phillies were maybe the weirdest because they pretty consistently did everything you can do during a season.
And the most hard-to-nail-down team was the Phillies: 15 percent first, 29 percent second, 28 percent third, 24 percent fourth, 4 percent fifth. Phillies followers, they’ll definitely finish somewhere!
The biggest criticism of the Phillies this year is that their bullpen was bad last year. Which it was. But Phillies fans have watched the team jettison the worst of the bunch last year, casting aside Brandon Workman, Heath Hembree and the rest of them. Instead, they’ve recognized the bad luck players like Héctor Neris had last year and the progress young arms like Connor Brogdon made last year. They also brought in hard throwers like José Alvarado, Archie Bradley and Sam Coonrod.
Will this be a perfect bullpen? No. But after the historic failure last year, minimum competence would be really cool to see. It seems like a lot of the national writers have forgotten that if the Phillies’ bullpen was regular bad instead of historically bad, they would have made the playoffs.
Another common national criticism is that the Phillies have a lot of risks in their rotation behind Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. But Phillies fans would probably amend that to questions behind Nola, Wheeler and Zach Eflin. Eflin feels almost like a secret weapon at this point. I’ve heard jokes about Eflin being in the rotation on national baseball podcasts, but Phillies fans know how good Eflin has been and how much better he could be this year.
Finally, there’s a weird sense that everyone is sleeping on the Phillies lineup. Last year the Phillies were 4th in the National League in runs scored and tied for 5th in all of baseball in runs scored. A lot of national prognosticators seem to think the Phillies can’t have a top-5 offense again this year.
But I don’t get that. Where is the regression for the team this year? Bryce Harper was slowed by a bad back in the second half of the season. Andrew McCutchen and Didi Gregorius were coming off of injuries. Center field was a black hole on offense. Alec Bohm was a rookie and will probably hit for more power this year than he did last year. If anything, the Phillies could be even better this year.
So yeah, I normally shake my head at those sappy baseball-is-back-montages. I shouldn’t, because I know I’ll get the highlights and the bat flips once the games actually start. But this year, I’ll be smiling. I’ll be smiling because baseball is back and all of the joy that that will bring this year.
But I’ll also be smiling because I know something a lot of people don’t know. The Phillies are better than people think this year and I can’t wait for them to show the league.
Games 1, 2 and 3
The Phillies and Braves meet this weekend in one of those annoying opening weekend series where they play baseball today, take Friday off, then play Saturday and Sunday. For some reason, Major League Baseball is under the impression that after spring training and then a couple of off days, what baseball fans and players really need is a break after Opening Day. NO! Give us more baseball!
Anyway, the Braves are the top contender in the National League East this year. The Braves didn’t make any splashy acquisitions this year, but they still feature a dominant lineup and a solid rotation, bolstered by veterans Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly. They probably have the best defense in the NL East. But their bullpen could be an issue this year after losing Mark Melancon and Chris Martin.
Here’s when they’ll play who will take the mound:
Thursday, 3:05 PM
Max Fried @ Aaron Nola
Saturday, 4:05 PM
Charlie Morton @ Zack Wheeler
Sunday, 1:05 PM
Ian Anderson @ Zach Eflin
And while the teams have not released what the lineups will be Thursday, MLB.com’s preview does have projected lineups, which seem close enough.
Braves
Ronald Acuña Jr., RF
Ozzie Albies, 2B
Freddie Freeman, 1B
Marcell Ozuna, LF
Travis d’Arnaud, C
Dansby Swanson, SS
Austin Riley, 3B
Cristian Pache, CF
Max Fried, P
Phillies
Andrew McCutchen, LF
J.T. Realmuto, C
Bryce Harper, RF
Rhys Hoskins, 1B
Alec Bohm, 3B
Didi Gregorius, SS
Jean Segura, 2B
Roman Quinn, CF
Aaron Nola, P
I think normally at this point in series previews I’ll give you some players to watch or some deeper thoughts on the series. But we’ve done a lot of previewing this spring. It’s really just time to watch some baseball.
Phillies playoff odds
PECOTA: 13.6% chance to win the division, 83.5-78.5 projected record
FanGraphs: 16.4% chance to make playoffs, 5.0% chance to win division, 80-82 projected record
Phillies news and notes
'He's done it': Neris named Phillies' closer (Phillies.com)
The Phillies took care of one of their last pieces of Opening Day roster housekeeping, naming Héctor Neris the closer. For now, Neris holds the job because he’s done it in the past. He also started working in a slider more often during spring training, a sign that he’s trying to become a better pitcher.
I’ve shared my fondness for Rhys Hoskins before. He’s one of my favorite Phillies and his unique blend of patience and power is just one of the reasons I love watching him play.
Phillies predictions on win total, Harper homers, Bohm and more (NBC Sports Philadelphia)
MLB news and notes
I thought this story about how the Padres ended up as one of baseball’s superpowers was great. It really demonstrates how much it just takes ownership committed to actually winning. Far too many owners are happy just collecting their TV money and puttinÇg a mediocre product on the field and I’m glad the Padres have committed to their fans.
The New Baseball Still Seems Juiced (The Ringer)
The baseball, the most fundamental piece of equipment in the game, is still a source of uncertainty and discussion for the league. They did something really stupid during spring training and mixed in old balls with new balls, and they can’t account for the quality of their new balls, so I think we’re in for more uncertainty than this article would predict. Still, it’s not good if the baseball is still a rocket ball.
Breaking news right before I hit publish last night:
Jeff Passan's 20 burning questions: Why the 2021 MLB season could change everything (ESPN)
Passan is about as dialed-in to baseball as any reporter and he’s always worth reading when he steps back and takes a look at the league and where it stands. One of the things that always comes through with Passan is that he loves baseball as much as everyone else.
There’s a lot of good stuff in this column, including a look at contract extensions, negotiations over the collective bargaining agreement, COVID, and the 2021 season.
If you get a chance, listen to this full interview because it was really insightful. It’s true that baseball has moved too far in the three true outcomes direction, where most of what we see are walks, strikeouts and home runs. What’s also true, Epstein points out, is that other sports are constantly adjusting their rules to make the game better. Baseball’s task now is figuring out how to do that.
The 2021 All-MLB.tv Team (The Ringer)
One way to get excited about baseball is to figure out which players you want to watch when you’re not watching your favorite team. The Ringer is here to help you out.
100,000 Leagues Under the PECOTA: 2021 (Baseball Prospectus)
Here’s that BP story on simulating the league 100,000 times again, in case you missed it earlier. You should definitely check it out because there can be some crazy outcomes when you simulate something 100,000 times.
Get ready for Opening Day! Bold predictions, power rankings and names to know (ESPN)
Part of me hates power rankings. But most of me clicks on them every time. They’re a simple way to look at every team in the league and they generate conversation.
Tim Anderson’s star is only growing brighter. And his voice will only get stronger (Yahoo)
COVID updates
A follow-up to Tuesday’s link about possible reluctance among players to get vaccinated. Looks like the Cardinals, the team referenced Tuesday, did get the required 85% to let them loosen their COVID protocols.
Jeff Passan says a majority of players should have at least one shot by mid-April.
Unfortunately, it looks like the Nationals might have a COVID situation on their hands. At least one player has tested positive.