Red Pinstripes: Pay attention to the AL Wild Card races
Baseball's most exciting playoff chase is in the American League
Good morning,
Welcome to MLB Wednesday at Red Pinstripes. Today, I’m taking stock of what should be the hottest playoff chase in baseball, the American League Wild Card. We’ve got five good teams competing for just two spots. It’s a lot of fun.
There’s also a bunch of links about the Field of Dreams, the Hall of Fame, a bike ride to Chicago, and more.
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A race to the finish in the American League
One of the most exciting playoff chases this year is going to be the AL Wild Card race. Both Wild Card spots are up for grabs and anywhere from five to seven teams could be in the hunt, depending on how far down the standings you want to look.
We’ll ignore Cleveland and Los Angeles for now; at 8 games back they’re probably out of the race completely. Unlike some other teams that have overcome big gaps, there are too many other teams for these two to chase down.
Those other five teams are all in a tight race with each other. But add in the divisional races -- Oakland is just two back of the Astros and the AL East race could tighten up if the Rays falter -- and seven teams are contending for four spots. It’s very exciting!
Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners are probably the least likely team to make the playoffs. They’re young and hungry, but I’m not sure they have enough pitching to seriously compete. FanGraphs gives them just a 1.3% chance of making the playoffs and their schedule the rest of the way is fairly hard. Don’t count them out, but also don’t count on them.
Boston Red Sox
Ahead of the Mariners, I think the Red Sox are the second-most likely to miss the playoffs. They led the American League through most of the season, but now they’re falling back to earth. And the reasons for their collapse are entirely predictable. Since the All-Star Break, the Red Sox are 21st in the league in pitching with a 5.05 ERA. All of the teams behind them will miss the playoffs this year. It gets worse when you look at just the ERA of starters: a 5.43 ERA is 26th in the league, though it is ahead of the Rays.
The worst part for the Red Sox is that this problem was obvious. Their pitching depth has been thin all season, but the team did nothing to fix it. Yes, they have Chris Sale on his way back from injury this weekend. But how much can you count on him in his first starts back from Tommy John surgery? Pitchers tend to be erratic in that first season back. How many other pitchers can the Red Sox rely on? Here are their starters this season:
Nathan Eovaldi (4.07 ERA)
Eduardo Rodriguez (5.33 ERA)
Nick Pivetta (4.34 ERA)
Tanner Houck (2.91 ERA)
Martin Perez (4.77 ERA)
Garrett Richards (5.22 ERA)
That is a rotation that is screaming for multiple reinforcements. Why couldn’t the Red Sox have acquired Kyle Gibson? Did they make a serious run for Jon Gray? The Blue Jays paid a steep price for Jose Berrios, but they also just swept the Red Sox.
It seems like the Red Sox front office came into the season not believing they were serious contenders and have decided to remain in that posture, even as this disaster of a rotation was begging for help. This team has a great offense. They need pitching. The Wild Card race was too competitive for Chaim Bloom and company to sit on their hands.
Toronto Blue Jays
I am very interested in seeing what the Blue Jays do down the stretch here. What they are now is what the Mariners should be in a year or two. The Blue Jays have a fun young offensive core that is hitting its peak with the help of some veterans, like George Springer. And they decided to push their chips in at the trade deadline, bolstering the bullpen and the starting rotation.
Then there’s the narrative aspect. The Blue Jays are finally playing in Toronto for the first time since 2019. And they’re responding extremely well. They’ve won 8 of their last 10 and swept the Red Sox. They also have one of the easiest schedules remaining down the stretch. I am not betting against this team and I think there’s a really good chance they play at least one playoff game this year.
New York Yankees
During Monday night’s Yankees game, the YES broadcast created a team of Yankees currently on the injured list. I think that team would be pretty good! They’ve had terrible COVID luck despite being mostly vaccinated. And Gio Urshela and Gleyber Torres have regular old baseball injuries, too. Still, these Yankees are hot right now. They have also won eight of their last ten. Since the trade deadline, the team has responded to the acquisitions of Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo with verve and energy. Even though Rizzo is now on the IL, I think just the front office demonstrating its trust in the players has given them the juice they needed. I’ve been steadfast about this all year, but the Yankees will be in the playoffs when this season is over. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see them playing deep into October.
Oakland Athletics
Last but not least among the Wild Card contenders, we have the Oakland Athletics. They’re the kings of the second-half push. I can’t remember a late summer without the A’s surging into playoff contention. And here they are again. But there are questions about this team. Ramon Laureano was suspended 80 games last week for using banned substances. Luckily for the A’s, they had just acquired another excellent center fielder in Starling Marte. Their rotation has been quietly excellent. This is a pretty good team.
And that’s why this race is going to be so fun. Even if we exclude the Mariners, you’re looking at four pretty good teams here trying to get just two playoff spots. Even if the Red Sox continue to crater, one of the Athletics, Blue Jays, or Yankees will probably miss the playoffs. (I guess we can add the Rays and Astros in here, too. They lead the divisions now, but the Astros are only a couple of games up on the A’s.)
The best part of baseball is the playoff race. All season, these teams play quietly meaningful games. They toil day-in and day-out to improve, to win the series, win the week, win the month. And then, by the time they’ve played 150 games, there is still drama and excitement about who will get one of the few playoff spots available. There’s nothing like it and this AL Wild Card race is going to be a lot of fun these next two months.
LINKS
Inside the 'Field of Dreams' broadcast: A look at Fox's plans and preparation for the Yankees-White Sox showcase (The Athletic)
Thursday, you’ll see one playoff team face an aspiring playoff team in a cornfield. The White Sox and Yankees will meet for baseball’s first Field of Dreams game. I’ve always liked the movie, although it’s been a while since I’ve seen it. It will be interesting to see how this game looks and feels, though I’m worried the broadcast will be too saccharine for my tastes.
I enjoy the Cespedes boys, both on their podcast and on Twitter. This bike ride Jake took was something fun and it turns out he raised a lot of money for a good cause.
MLB Awards Predictions - August - Baseball Prospectus
Here’s an interesting awards check-in. It uses an algorithm to predict not necessarily who the best players have been, but how writers will vote for the awards.
Minor League Attendance Is Crashing - Baseball Prospectus
This is disappointing to read. Minor league baseball is one of the pillars of the game, a pillar that MLB has taken a sledgehammer to recently. I hope we see a recovery here when (if) the pandemic recedes.
Cockroaches, car camping, poverty wages: Why are minor-leaguers living in squalor? (The Athletic)
I’ve written about this issue a lot, but here’s another good, comprehensive look at how poorly major league baseball treats its employees.
'It was a magical time': Tony Gwynn's Hall of Fame career started 40 years ago this summer (The Athletic)
I love me some Tony Gwynn.
Baseball should be doing everything it can to make sure it includes as many Black voices in the game’s history as possible. For a long time, Black players were excluded from the game and we missed too much as a result.
Gammons: For Troy Tulowitzki and other former major-leaguers, college is the place to be (The Athletic)
It’s been interesting to watch college baseball grow over the last decade. I think the internet has played a big role in increasing access people have to the game. Now, big league players are starting to return to college baseball as coaches. It would be great for baseball if the college game could become even half as popular as college football and college basketball.
Kansas City commemorated Hall of Fame pitcher Satchel Paige in multiple ways Monday: 'I see it as baseball magic' (The Athletic)
In Ingenious PR Stunt, MLB Distracts from Trevor Bauer Investigation with Talks to Partner with Barstool (SB Nation)