Red Pinstripes: Who's leaving the Phillies?

Prediction who stays and goes from the 40-man roster

Good morning!

Welcome to another postseason edition of Red Pinstripes. There’s one game remaining in the divisional series, so I’ll recap those games and preview the championship series tomorrow. Just remember, watch tonight’s Dodgers at Giants game, at 9 PM on TBS. It should be a great one. 

For today’s newsletter, we’re focused on the Phillies. First, I break down the 40-man roster and try to figure out who stays, who goes, and how many roster spots the Phillies have to work with this offseason. 

Then, it’s time for some news and notes, including the team’s new hitting coach and the question of just how much control Joe Girardi has right now.

40-Man madness!

All teams have a 40-man roster. During the offseason, this is all of the players considered to be part of the team’s major league roster. Over the course of the regular season, players might be added to the 60-day injured list, which removes them from the 40-man roster to clear space to add replacement players. But those players have to be re-added to the 40-man after the World Series. Free agents will also leave the 40-man roster. 

Teams also have to protect some minor leaguers, depending on how long they’ve been in the organization. If these players are not added, they’re eligible to be selected in the Rule V draft during the Winter Meetings.

The Phillies will also be making decisions on players who have options that need to be picked up or declined. And arbitration-eligible players could be offered a contract or be non-tendered, which makes them free agents. 

So there’s a lot to get to for the Phillies. Hopefully by the end of this exercise we’ll see the beginning of the Phillies’s offseason plans. The Phillies had 44 players on their 40-man roster at the end of the season. That includes Zach Eflin, Matt Moore, JoJo Romero, Rhys Hoskins, and Roman Quinn, who are all currently on the 60-man injured list.

Salary figures from Cot’s Contracts. Arbitration projections from MLB Trade Rumors. Stats from Fangraphs.

Catchers:

Andrew Knapp (Arb3, $1.2 million projected)
2021: 62 games, 159 PA, 2 HR, .152/.215/.214, .196 wOBA, 17 wRC+, -1.1 fWAR

Rafael Marchan (Contract renewable)
2021: 20 games, 56 PA, 1 HR, .231/.286/.346, .277 wOBA, 70 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR

J.T. Realmuto (Under contract: $23.875 million)
2021: 134 games, 537 PA, 17 HR, .263/.343/..439, .336 wOBA, 108 wRC+, 4.4 fWAR

Realmuto played in the first year of his five-year contract last year. He’s not going anywhere. 

The coaching staff loves Marchan, but he could be trade bait this offseason. Either way, he’s going to stay on the 40-man.

The big question with the catchers is what happens with Andrew Knapp. By all accounts, he’s a great presence in the clubhouse and one of the unseen captains of this team. But he was an awful hitter last year and his salary is beginning to creep up there. Two factors will play a role in the Phillies’ decision: whether they are willing to give Marchan very little playing time as the backup next year and whether they think they can find a free agent catcher on a cheaper deal than what Knapp will make next year. If the answer to either of those questions is yes, he’s gone. And I think he will be at least non-tendered, or signed to a cheaper deal. 

Infielders

Alec Bohm (Contract renewable)
2021: 115 games, 417 PA, 7 HR, .247/.305/.342, .285 wOBA, 75 wRC+, -0.2 fWAR

Freddy Galvis (Free agent)
2021: 104 games, 394 PA, 14 HR, .242/.302/.407, .305 wOBA, 90 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR

Didi Gregorius (Under contract: $14.5 million)
2021: 103 games, 408 PA, 13 HR, .209/.270/.370, .275 wOBA, 68 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR

Rhys Hoskins (Arb2, $7.6 million projected)
2021: 107 games, 443 PA, 27 HR, .247/.334/.530, .364 wOBA, 127 wRC+, 2.3 fWAR

Nick Maton (Contract renewable)
2021: 52 games, 131 PA, 2 HR, .256/.323/.385, .309 wOBA, 91 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR

Jean Segura (Under contract: $14.25 million)
2021: 131 games, 567 PA, 14 HR, .290/.348/.436, .338 wOBA, 109 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR

Ronald Torreyes (Arb?, $1.6 million projected)
2021: 112 games, 334 PA, 7 HR, .242/.286/.346, .274 wOBA, 68 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR

Luke Williams (Contract renewable)
2021: 58 games, 108 PA, 1 HR, .245/.315/.316, .283 wOBA, 74 wRC+, -0.1 fWAR

Who’s safe: Hoskins, Segura, and Bohm are all coming back next year. Gregorius will also be on the roster; he’s under contract for another year. But the Phillies have not guaranteed he will be the starter next year and the team could look to trade him.

Probably safe: Williams and Moniak could be low-cost additions to the bench with the flexibility to shuttle them between Triple-A and Philadelphia. The only question is if the Phillies look to add more players from outside the organization and they need an extra 40-man roster spot. But I think it’s more likely an outfielder goes than one of these two players.

Gone: Galvis. I think he’s a good player to have around and I wouldn’t mind seeing him back on a low-cost deal to be the fill-in at all four infield spots. But for now he’s a free agent.

Torreyes: Torreyes had a lot of surprising contributions to the Phillies last year, but at the end of the day, he was a below-average player who was badly exposed down the stretch. I would hope that the Phillies non-tender him and, at best, bring him back on a minor league contract. But Girardi loves this guy and I’m scared he has enough juice to keep him around. This is my newsletter, so I’m cutting him, but if the Phillies keep him around that says a lot of bad things about their future. 

Outfielders

Bryce Harper (Under contract: $26 million)
2021: 141 games, 599 PA, 35 HR, .309/.429/.615, .431 wOBA, 170 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR

Adam Haseley (Contrat renewable)
2021: 9 games, 21 PA, 0 HR, .190/.190/.238, .185 wOBA, 10 wRC+, -0.2 fWAR

Odubel Herrera (Club option: $11.5 million, $2.5 million buyout, arb3 if option not picked up, $11.6 projected)
2021: 124 games, 492 PA, 13 HR, .260/.310,/416, .312, 93 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR

Travis Jankowski (Arb, $900,000 projected)
2021: 76 games, 157 PA, 1 HR, .252/.364/.351, .312 wOBA, 93 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR

Andrew McCutchen (Club option: $15 million, $3 million buyout)
2021: 144 games, 574 PA, 27 HR, .222/.334/.444, .335 wOBA, 107 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR

Brad Miller (Free agent)
2021: 140 games, 377 PA, 20 HR, .227/.321/.453, .331 wOBA, 105 wRC+, 1 fWAR

Mickey Moniak (Contract renewable)
2021: 21 games, 37 PA, 1 HR, .091/.167/.182, .147 wOBA, -15 wRC+, -0.3 fWAR

Roman Quinn (Arb, $700,000)
2021: 28 games, 62 PA, 0 HR, .173/.306/.288, .275 wOBA, 69 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR

Matt Vierling (Contract renewable)
2021: 34 games, 77 PA, 2 HR, .324/.364/.479, .356 wOBA, 121 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR

Safe: Harper is obviously sticking around. So is Vierling. But that’s it for a very large group of outfielders.

Probably coming back: Adam Haseley and Mickey Moniak never got the chance to prove they belonged last year. Instead, those chances went to the likes of Matt Joyce, Herrera, and Jankowski. Something has to give and it wouldn’t be a shock to see at least one of these players in a different uniform next year. I’ll have them as staying for now, though.

Gone: Herrera has an option that will be declined because he’s definitely not worth paying nearly $12 million. Then he’ll be non-tendered for the same reason. I think (and hope) that this is the last we’ve seen of him. He provided some good moments, but the Phillies need more production offensively and defensively out of his spot on the roster.

McCutchen had a weird but good year last year. But at $15 million, the Phillies would probably rather pay the $3 million buyout and thank Cutch for his service. 

Jankowski and Quinn are both fringe players who can be cut and probably brought back on minor league deals, if either the organization or the player is so inclined. Miller is a good bench bat, but he’ll probably see what he can get on the open market.

Pitchers

José Alvarado (Arb2, $1.9 million projected)
2021: 64 games, 55.2 IP, 27.1 K%, 18.7 BB%, 4.20 ERA, 4.80 FIP, -0.3 fWAR

Cam Bedrosian (Free agent)
2021: 26 games, 25.0 IP, 19.8 K%, 14.7 BB%, 5.04 ERA, 6.49 FIP, -0.3 fWAR

Archie Bradley (free agent)
2021: 53 games, 51.0 IP, 17.9 K%, 9.8 BB%, 3.71 ERA, 4.35 FIP, 0.3 fWAR

Connor Brogdon (Contract renewable)
2021: 56 games, 57.2 IP, 21.3 K%, 7.7 BB%, 3.43 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 0.7 fWAR

Sam Coonrod (Contract renewable)
2021: 42 games, 42.1 IP, 25.9 K%, 8.1 BB%, 4.04 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 0.5 fWAR

Hans Crouse (Contract renewable)
2021: 2 games, 2 GS, 7.0 IP, 6.3 K%, 21.9 K%, 5.14 ERA, 9.31 FIP, -0.2 fWAR

Kyle Dohy (Contract renewable)
2021: 1 game, 1.0 IP, 20.0 K%, 20.0 BB%, 0.00 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 0.0 fWAR

Seranthony Dominguez (Arb2, $800,000)
2021: 1 game, 1.0 IP, 33.0 K%, 0.0 BB%, 0.00 ERA, 1.17 FIP, 0.0 fWAR

Zach Eflin (Arb3, $6 million projected)
2021: 18 games, 18 games started, 105.2 IP, 22.4 K%, 3.6 BB%, 4.17 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 2.2 fWAR

Bailey Falter (Contract renewable)
2021: 22 games, 33.2 IP, 24.5 K%, 4.3 BB%, 5.61 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 0.3 fWAR

Kyle Gibson (Under contract: $7 million)
2021: 31 games, 30 games started, 182.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 3.0 fWAR

JD Hammer (Contract renewable)
2021: 20 games, 20.0 IP, 23.4 K%, 11.7 BB%, 4.95 ERA, 4.87 FIP, 0.0 fWAR

Damon Jones (Contract renewable)
2021: 1 game, 0.1 IP, 0.0 K%, 50.0 BB%, 0.00 ERA, 21.17 FIP, 0.0 fWAR

Ian Kennedy (Free agent)
2021: 55 G, 56.1 IP, 27.2 K%, 7.5 BB%, 3.20 ERA, 4.75 FIP, 0.0 fWAR

Adonis Medina (Contract renewable)
2021: 4 G, 1 GS, 7.2 IP, 16.7 K%, 11.1 BB%, 3.52 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 0.1 fWAR

Matt Moore (Free agent)
2021: 24 G, 13 GS, 73.0 IP, 18.9 K%, 11.4 BB%, 6.29 ERA, 5.76 FIP, -0.2 fWAR

Francisco Morales (Contract renewable)
2021: None, reached Triple-A

Hector Neris (Free agent)
2021: 74 G, 74.1 IP, 31.6 K%, 10.3 BB%, 3.63 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 0.6 fWAR

Aaron Nola (Under contract: $15 million)
2021: 32 G, 32 GS, 180.2 IP, 29.8 K%, 5.2 BB%, 4.63 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 4.5 fWAR

JoJo Romero (Contract renewable)
2021: 11 G, 9.0 IP, 18.2 K%, 9.1 BB%, 7.00 ERA, 8.84 FIP, -0.4 ERA

Ramon Rosso (Contract renewable)
2021: 7 G, 8.0 IP, 20.0 K%, 8.6 BB%, 5.63 ERA, 5.79 FIP, -0.1 fWAR

Cristopher Sanchez (Contract renewable)
2021: 7G, 1 GS, 12.2 IP, 22.0 K%, 11.9 BB%, 4.97 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 0.1 fWAR

Ranger Suarez (Contract renewable)
2021: 39 G, 12 GS, 106.0 IP, 25.6 K%, 7.9 BB%, 1.36 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 3.0 fWAR

Zack Wheeler (Under contract: $26 million)
2021: 32 G, 32 GS, 213.1 IP, 29.1 K%, 5.4 BB%, 2.78 ERA, 2.59 FIP, 7.3 fWAR

Safe: Let’s start with the rotation, where Wheeler, Nola, Suarez, Eflin, and Gibson will all be back next year. Eflin probably won’t be ready to start the year, so the Phillies will need another pitcher to fill his spot in April. Gibson was pretty bad for the Phillies after the trade, but he’s cheap and will almost definitely be better as a fifth starter than Matt Moore or Chase Anderson were last year.

In the bullpen, expect a lot more turnover. But that won’t include Sam Coonrod, Connor Brogdon, Jose Alvarado, Seranthony Dominguez, or Bailey Falter. JoJo Romero is also coming back, but after Tommy John surgery last season, he’s going right back on the 60-day once the season starts.

Youngsters coming back: Hans Crouse could compete for that final rotation spot. Likewise with Adonis Medina and Francisco Morales, but I think the Phillies would be better off focusing on those two as relievers in the long term. Kyle Dohy, Damon Jones, Ramon Rosso, and Cristopher Sanchez are also controllable young pitchers likely to return. 

Maybe: J.D. Hammer, I think, is at the bottom of the 40-man dogpile. He’s already been outrighted off of the 40-man once in his career and I don’t think there’s anything keeping him around in the long term. He’s safe for now, but he’ll be the first to go if the Phillies need his spot.

Gone: Bedrosian and Moore were terrible and I don’t want to see them in Philadelphia ever again unless they’re serving up home runs as members of the opposing pitching staff. Bradley was fine but didn’t give the Phillies what they were hoping for when they signed him. He’s likely headed elsewhere. Neris is a free agent that I hope the Phillies bring back. Kennedy is not a closer but was asked to do the job down the stretch. The Phillies have enough middle relief and so I think a reunion is unlikely. 

To recap: Bedrosian, Moore, Bradley, Neris, Kennedy, Herrera, McCutchen, Jankowski, Quinn, Galvis, Torreyes, and Knapp are all off of my 40-man roster. That’s 12 players. With the players coming back onto the 40-man from the 60-man IL, that leaves the Phillies with 32 players on the 40-man for the offseason. Expect more turnover.

Next week, we’ll look at what positions the Phillies need to add help at this offseason.

Kevin Long as hitting coach

The big Phillies news this week was the addition of Kevin Long as the team’s hitting coach. On the one hand, this brought out groans because it’s another baseball lifer with connections to Girardi. He was the manager’s hitting coach in New York as well. 

But I’m willing to give this some leeway. Long helped mentor Juan Soto, who is obviously super talented without long, but clearly has a good relationship with the hitting coach. They watched the NL Wild Card game in LA together. I also think Long did some good things to help Trea Turner. On the other hand, Victor Robles and Carter Kieboom struggled to develop under Long’s tutelage. 

So what do we make of all of these Girardi related hires? I think it’s fine. If the Phillies decided they wanted another year of Girardi, then they might as well go all in. Give him everything he thinks he needs to succeed. If he does succeed, that’s great. But if he doesn’t, no more excuses. 

The other news this week is that Bobby Dickerson is under consideration for the vacant infield coordinator job. Dickerson filled that role during the 2019 season