Red Pinstripes: Will the Nats bounce back?
Plus: RIP Rookie, Phillies pitching update, Moniak playing time, Bobby Witt breaks out and Maikel Franco joins the O's
Good morning,
Welcome to Red Pinstripes, a newsletter about baseball written from a Phillies perspective. Today, we’re previewing the Washington Nationals, checking in on the Phillies’ pitching, pondering Mickey Moniak’s playing time and hearing from an old friend.
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Before I get into today’s letter, I want to say goodbye to someone Phillies fans have come to love. Rhys and Jayme Hoskins announced Monday night that their dog Rookie died recently. Phillies fans loved watching Rookie’s own Instagram account, where he demonstrated his playful and friendly ways. He was only four years old. Our hearts go out to Rhys and Jayme.
Where do the Nationals go in 2021?
What happened in 2020
The Nationals celebrated being the World Series champions. They went 26-34, tied for last in the NL East.
Projected Lineup
CF - Victor Robles (R)
RF - Juan Soto (L)
SS - Trea Turner (R)
1B - Josh Bell (S)
LF - Kyle Schwarber (L)
2B - Starlin Castro (R)
C - Yan Gomes (R)
3B - Carter Kieboom (R)
Projected Rotation
Max Scherzer - R
Patrick Corbin - L
Stephen Strasburg - R
Jon Lester - L
Joe Ross - R
2021 PECOTA Projection
84-78, 2nd in the NL East.
Will the Nationals reload after their World Series hangover?
It was clear last year that the Nationals just weren’t ready to compete in the shortened season. They were coming off their World Series victory. They had just lost Anthony Rendon to free agency and injuries and opt-outs meant they were without Stephen Strasburg and Ryan Zimmerman.
The Nationals might have also been one of the teams least likely to see success during a 60-game sprint. Their recovery from a notoriously terrible start to the 2019 season helped fuel their World Series run that year. But there was no time to get over a slow start last year.
It is also clear that the Nationals believe a couple of solid additions to the lineup and the pitching staff will help shore up the team and have them ready to compete this year. Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber give them an immediate, if not spectacular, boost on offense. Jon Lester was brought in to provide solid innings at the back end of the rotation. Brad Hand provides a steady presence to help anchor the bullpen.
But you’ll notice that just about every one of those moves is described as solid, not spectacular, or even very good. The Nationals will need more than just steady improvement from their new players. They need development from young players, like Carter Kieboom, Victor Robles and Luis Garcia. If these players start to reach their offensive ceilings and show the talent that made them top prospects, that could go a long way toward helping this Nationals team contend this year.
The other issue with the Nationals this year might be depth. In a division where just about every other team has potential reinforcements on the bench or in the minors in case of an injury, the Nationals are lacking. I cannot look at their depth chart and find a position where they would be well-prepared to weather a significant injury, and especially not a run of significant injuries.
Despite their lack of depth, the Nationals still have the elite-level talent to compete with any team in baseball. When it’s healthy, the top three of the rotation are still a fearsome trio. Juan Soto and Trea Turner are two of the best offensive players in baseball, both perennial MVP candidates.
Player to watch
Soto is must-see TV. You should probably set up a notification for when he’s at bat, just so you can tune in. He’s fun and he has the potential to be one of the greatest hitters ever. Don’t just take my word for it; just about every writer in baseball wrote a story this winter about how Soto is the next Ted Williams.
The 22-year old has been a dominant force in the league since his sudden arrival in 2018. His career slash line (.295 average/.415 on-base percentage/.557 slugging) defies understanding, especially when you look at how he’s grown and become better every year. Last year he hit .351/.490/.695. Those are prime Barry Bonds numbers, without the steroids. And he’s only 22.
Pitching check-in
Phillies may have struck gold with José Alvarado (Phillies Nation)
Veteran reliever is under the microscope in Phillies camp (NBC Sports Philadelphia)
The Phillies are trying to solidify their pitching staff and it’s time to check-in on some of the major spring battles. Unlike with the hitting last week, I won’t hit on the stats for some of the players not involved in spring battles because they’re really not relevant. Just look at Aaron Nola’s start Tuesday for evidence.
Rotation battles: Matt Moore, Chase Anderson, Vince Velasquez and Spencer Howard for spots 4 and 5.
As the NBC Sports link above says, Moore has essentially claimed the fourth starter spot. He’s only given up one run this year, but more importantly, he has only walked one batter in 8 innings of work. Moore is a former top prospect, but his bugaboo throughout his career has been control. If that issue is behind him, he could be a really solid pickup for the Phillies this year.
That leaves Anderson, Velasquez and Howard for the final spot. I think Anderson’s likely to get this. Like Moore, he’s been effective. He’s walked 4 and struck out 8 while giving up no runs over 7 innings. Velasquez has only pitched 3.2 innings while giving up one earned run, striking out 6 and walking two.
By innings, it looks like Anderson is pulling ahead. He’s a fresher face and this staff has had its looks at Velasquez. It’ll be interesting to see what happens with Vinny; he doesn’t seem like he would work well out of the bullpen and he probably has trade value, which should help the team open a 40-man spot.
Howard has shown some of his electric stuff this spring. But any thoughts that he’d make the rotation were dashed when his scheduled appearance Monday was scratched because of back spasms. I think that just proves that he still needs to be handled carefully before putting him into the rotation. He should probably enter the rotation in May or June if someone is faltering or gets hurt.
NRI bullpen battles: RHP Brandon Kintzler, LHP Tony Watson, RHP Hector Rondon for two spots.
Kintzler and Watson have both been fairly effective out of the bullpen this spring and are probably locks for the roster once the Phillies figure out which players on the 40-man they want to designate for assignment to make room.
Rondon was another option, but he hasn’t been able to get into gear this spring. He’s typically throwing around 96 mph, but he’s been stuck in the low 90s. That’s not good enough if he wants to make the team.
Phillies news and notes
Mickey Moniak needs to play more this spring (The Good Phight)
There has been a lot of discussion about where Mickey Moniak fits in the Phillies’ plans given how much playing time he’s received during spring training. He’s hit well this spring after bulking up and changing his approach, but he’s also mostly played against pitchers below major league quality.
If the Phillies don’t think he’s ready for a major league role -- and it’s clear that they don’t right now -- then it makes sense to continue to use the playing time available to suss out who actually starts the year in center field. Moniak’s played well, but it’s only spring. Yes, he deserves more playing time (and he started Tuesday’s game), but he probably needs Triple-A playing time. After all, if the other options fail this April, that doesn’t preclude the Phillies from bringing him up this summer.
Craft coaching Phils on mental side of game (Phillies.com)
Here’s one of several articles that came out Monday and Tuesday about the Phillies’ new mental skills coach.
Gov. Wolf to increase Pa. attendance limits in early April (NBC Sports Philadelphia)
If the Phillies can be a middle-of-the-road defense, stay healthy and meet expectations at the plate, they could end a lot of nights pounding fists around the mound. Remember, this team held a lead in more than 80% of its games last season and now has a bullpen better equipped to hold them.
In my opinion, much of the talk about the Phillies’ defense being terrible has been overblown. A lot of it is based on defensive metrics from last year, metrics that tend to fluctuate season-to-season and are especially suspect after such a short season.
The important thing to note is that while the Phillies aren’t running out the greatest defense, all of their players are capable defenders and their contributions with the bat far outweigh whatever slight deficiencies there might be on defense.
Around the NL East
Nationals, D.C. United receive approval to have limited fans at home games (Washington Post)
Long-awaited return for Marlins starter Sanchez (ESPN)
Luis Guillorme or J.D. Davis? Mets have big decision to make at third base (SNY)
Mets Mailbag Question: Would it make sense to trade Dom Smith? (SNY)
Battles abound for roles on Braves' bench (Braves.com)
MLB news and notes
The Orioles have signed former Phillies 3B Maikel Franco, the team announced Tuesday. Franco, a top prospect with the Phils who was ultimately non-tendered, probably won’t be ready for opening day. But when he does join the Orioles, Franco will pair up with SS Freddy Galvis, another former Phillie.
Notes: Witt Jr. dazzles; Singer passes LA test (MLB.com)
I wanted to check in on Royals’ top prospect Bobby Witt, Jr. because his story is so interesting compared to Fernando Tatis, Jr. Tatis and Witt are both sons of major leaguers and are both shortstops. Like Tatis two years ago with the Padres, Witt is lighting up Royals camp, even impressing the veterans.
The story with Tatis goes that the Padres might have sent him to the minors for a month or two to manipulate his service time. They had also just signed Manny Machado to play shortstop, so there was some built-in excuse there. Instead, Machado and Eric Hosmer and some other veterans went to the team and asked them to keep Tatis up because he was so good.
Witt has also been very good for the Royals this year. He’s hitting .333/.379/.667 with 3 HR in 11 games.
He’s also very different from Tatis. Tatis had played 102 games at Double-A and 129 games at low A and high A. Witt hasn’t played more than 37 games outside of complex ball (the lowest minors). So it makes sense if Witt spends most or all of this season in the minors. But it’s still cool to see what he’s doing this spring.
Six things we've learned in spring training (CBS Sports)
As King Félix tries to make the Orioles, the Orioles just try to make progress (Washington Post)
The Lawyer Who Became a (Pitching) Ninja (New York Times)
How to build a bullpen in 2021 -- Exploring the mystery keeping MLB execs up at night (ESPN)